Akbank Revises June Inflation Forecast Downward as Oil Prices Ease

Geopolitical developments and declining oil prices are set to weigh positively on Turkey’s June inflation, according to Akbank Economic Research. The bank now expects a lower print than previously forecast, aligning with broader market expectations for disinflation to continue. Two other surveys, too, expect inflation to decelerate…

Akbank Nowcasts June CPI at 1.3%, Annual Rate Seen at 34.9%

In its latest nowcast, Akbank reports that average model estimates point to a 1.5% monthly increase in consumer prices, but highlights a strong downside risk, supported by subdued demand and exchange rate stability.

“We believe the final figure will likely fall near the lower bound of the interquartile range (IQR),” said the bank. Its official final forecast is 1.3% for June CPI, with annual inflation easing to 34.9% from 35.4% in May.

The report also notes that seasonally adjusted inflation has remained below 2% for two consecutive months, a potential early signal of a shift to a lower inflation regime. Akbank adds:

“We’re seeing the first signs of a regime change in inflation. We’re descending onto a lower plateau. But it is critical that this trend be made sustainable without complacency.”

If current oil prices persist and monetary policy remains tight enough through the anticipated rate cut cycle, Akbank sees downside risks building around its year-end forecast of 30%.

“If June inflation aligns with our final forecast, we are likely to revise our year-end inflation target downward,” the bank said, calling for a “measured and patient” stance from the central bank.

Market Surveys Align with Akbank’s View: Inflation Seen Easing in June

AA Finans Survey – Median Forecast: 1.53% MoM, 35.26% YoY

An inflation expectations survey conducted by AA Finans among 24 economists shows a median monthly CPI forecast of 1.53% for June, with predictions ranging from 1.30% to 2.00%.

Based on this median, annual inflation is expected to edge down to 35.26% from 35.41% in May.

The median year-end inflation forecast in the survey stands at 30.41%.

ForInvest Survey – Similar Outlook, Annual Forecast Between 34.10% and 36.00%

A parallel survey by ForInvest Haber, conducted with 18 economists, yields a median monthly forecast of 1.50%, with an average forecast of 1.59%.

Annual inflation is seen falling to 35.21% (median) and 35.27% (average), with estimates ranging between 34.10% and 36.00%.

In May, inflation had come in at 1.53% MoM, surprising on the downside versus expectations of 2.10%.

Medium-Term Inflation Outlook: End-2025 Seen at 31%, End-2026 at 21.25%

The 2025 year-end inflation forecast is currently at 31.00%, with a high-low range between 32.50% and 28.00%. This marks a slight downward revision from 31.50% in the previous month’s survey.

Looking ahead to 12 months, CPI is expected to rise by 25.99%, while the 2026 year-end forecast remains unchanged at 21.25%, with forecasts ranging from 18.00% to 25.15%.

Core inflation (C Index), which excludes energy, food, beverages, tobacco, and gold, is projected to rise 1.75% MoM, with an annual forecast of 35.30%. The year-end C Index forecast stands at 31.00%.

Dollar/TL Forecasts Also Adjusted Downward

According to the same surveys:

• The median USD/TRY forecast for end-2025 now stands at 43.68, slightly down from 43.80 in the prior survey.

• 12-month forward estimate: 46.35

• 2026 year-end median forecast: revised lower to 50.00 from 51.40

Source: Akbank Economic Research, AA Finans, ForInvest Haber

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