AK Party Regains Poll Lead as Economic Gloom Deepens Across Türkiye

A new public opinion survey conducted by GENAR Research indicates that Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has narrowly reclaimed the top position in voter preference, even as public confidence in the country’s economic outlook continues to erode. The findings point to a striking disconnect between political alignments and economic sentiment, with widespread pessimism persisting despite shifting electoral trends.

The survey results were made public by pro-government journalist Abdulkadir Selvi in his column for Hürriyet. They arrive at a time when Türkiye’s political agenda is exceptionally crowded, shaped by discussions surrounding the so-called “terror-free Türkiye” peace process and high-profile corruption cases involving opposition figures. GENAR Research, the polling firm behind the survey, is widely regarded as being close to the government, a factor that often draws scrutiny of its findings.

AK Party and CHP Locked in a Tight Race

According to the survey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AK Party currently leads with 34 percent of the vote. Trailing closely behind is the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) at 32.2 percent, underscoring how competitive the political landscape remains.

Beyond the two dominant parties, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) registers 10.7 percent support, while the AK Party’s coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), stands at 8.1 percent. These figures suggest that while the governing bloc maintains an edge, voter preferences are highly fragmented, leaving little room for complacency.

The narrow margin between the AK Party and CHP highlights a broader trend in Turkish politics: electoral dominance is no longer assured, and small shifts in public mood—particularly around economic conditions—can have outsized political consequences.

The Shadow of the İmamoğlu Case

Selvi’s analysis points to a critical turning point earlier this year. Following the detention of former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 19, CHP briefly surged to the top of opinion polls. The move galvanized opposition voters and fueled a perception that the government was targeting key political rivals.

However, that momentum proved difficult to sustain. As the summer months progressed, CHP’s polling advantage faded, allowing the AK Party to move back into first place. Selvi noted that while the ruling party has regained the lead, it has been unable to significantly widen the gap, mainly because economic pressures continue to weigh heavily on voters.

This pattern suggests that political events can trigger short-term shifts in public opinion, but longer-term economic realities remain the decisive factor shaping voter behavior.

Nationalist Voters Hold Steady

One of the more unexpected findings of the survey concerns the impact of the “terror-free Türkiye” peace process on nationalist voters. Before the poll, many analysts anticipated that renewed discussions involving the PKK would alienate nationalist segments of the electorate, potentially costing the MHP support.

The data, however, tells a different story. According to Selvi, MHP has managed to preserve its vote share, defying predictions of a backlash. This resilience suggests that MHP’s core supporters have either accepted the government’s framing of the process or do not view it as a departure from the party’s nationalist stance.

At the same time, the DEM Party—seen as one of the political actors most supportive of the peace initiative—recorded an increase in voter support. This dual outcome indicates that the process has not destabilized the ruling alliance while simultaneously energizing constituencies favoring dialogue and conflict resolution.

Economic Anxiety Dominates Public Mood

Perhaps the most striking aspect of the survey is the depth of economic pessimism among respondents. Despite the AK Party’s marginal lead in voter preference, confidence in the economy appears to be at a historic low.

When asked about their expectations for 2026, nearly two-thirds of participants—64 percent—said they believe the economy will deteriorate further. In contrast, only 23.2 percent expressed optimism that conditions would improve. This imbalance highlights a prevailing sense of uncertainty driven by persistent inflation, rising living costs, and declining purchasing power.

Public trust in economic governance has also suffered significant damage. The survey found that 65.5 percent of respondents either “do not trust” or “do not trust at all” the current administration’s management of the economy. This lack of confidence cuts across political lines, suggesting that economic hardship is a shared concern even among voters who continue to support the ruling party.

Politics and the Economy Moving in Opposite Directions

The GENAR survey paints a picture of a country where political preferences and economic sentiment are increasingly disconnected. While the AK Party has managed to reclaim a slim lead, the broader mood remains one of frustration and doubt about the future.

This tension presents a complex challenge for the government. Maintaining electoral support in the face of sustained economic anxiety will likely require more than political messaging or short-term policy adjustments. For opposition parties, the data underscores both an opportunity and a limitation: economic dissatisfaction alone does not automatically translate into a decisive political shift.