Faith in Decline, CHP on the Rise: Polls Show Shifting Beliefs and Political Winds in Turkey

Three major surveys released this month reveal dramatic changes in both Turkey’s religious landscape and political preferences, highlighting a nation in transition.

KONDA Report: Turks Are Turning Away from Religion

A sweeping 2025 survey by KONDA Research, comparing current findings with data from 2008, shows a marked decline in the number of self-identified religious individuals in Turkey, alongside a rising tide of atheism and secularism.

Conducted with 6,137 participants, the study underscores a shift in identity and belief across generations:

• The percentage of people identifying as “religious” fell from 55% in 2008 to 46% in 2025.

• Those who define themselves as “atheist or non-believing” increased from 2% to 8% over the same period.

• Respondents identifying as “believing but not religious” rose slightly from 31% to 34%.

KONDA analysts attribute this trend to growing individualism, evolving youth values, and a cultural move toward questioning institutional religion. The reduced visibility of religious identity in public spaces and the redefinition of faith outside of traditional frameworks have also contributed.

The most striking shift is in the rise of non-believers. This group, which made up just 2% of the population in 2008, now comprises 8%—a fourfold increase that is particularly noticeable among urban and younger demographics.

Interestingly, the percentage of respondents identifying as “sofu”—representing the most devout segment—remained unchanged over 17 years, holding steady at 12%, suggesting a consistent core of religious conservatives amid broader social change.

Yöneylem Poll: CHP Pulls Ahead, AKP Continues to Slide

Yöneylem Research’s May 2025 political poll reveals a strong lead for the opposition CHP, which continues to gain momentum as public sentiment turns against the ruling AKP.

When undecided voters are proportionally distributed, CHP leads with 36.5%, compared to AKP’s 31%. Last month, AKP stood at 32.5%, signaling a further erosion in support.

Key findings from the survey of 2,004 participants across 200 locations include:

• CHP: 36.5%

• AKP: 31%

• MHP: 8%

• DEM Party: 9%

• İYİ Party: 3.9%

• Victory Party (Zafer): 3.6%

• YRP: 3.2%

• TİP: 1.3%

• Others: 3.5%

Voter responses also reflect widespread skepticism over recent corruption allegations against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, currently detained in Silivri Prison and nominated as CHP’s presidential candidate. When asked whether the accusations against him are convincing, 55.8% said “no”, while only 27.5% said “yes”.

Furthermore, 56.8% of respondents viewed the legal actions against İmamoğlu as politically motivated, compared to 27.8% who considered them legitimate judicial proceedings.

Presidential Race: İmamoğlu Widens Lead Over Erdoğan

A separate presidential election survey by HBS Research shows CHP’s candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu significantly outperforming President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a two-way race.

According to the poll:

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 58.7%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 41.3%

Despite being incarcerated, İmamoğlu has maintained and even expanded his lead—an indication of deep public disillusionment with the current government and growing support for change.

Earlier surveys from SONAR and AREA also placed CHP ahead of the AKP in parliamentary preferences, reinforcing the view that the political tide may be turning in Turkey.

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