Video Commentary: Turkish Lira After Elections: Will It Crash, or Soar?
TL4
Turkish Lira after elections: Will it crash, or soar?
- Turkey’s dual elections scheduled for 14 May is not only generating immense political frictions at home, but also spills over to the economy.
- A major for economic agents is whether CBRT’s implicit peg on the exchange rate will be maintained.
- Recently, a slew of reports and analyses concluded that TL is doomed to fall significantly after the elections, no matter which camp emerges victorious.
- Bizarre events can never be ruled out in Turkey, but if the opposition sweeps to victory, there is no sentimental or fundamental reason for TL deprecation.
- In Erdogan and allies win once again, Turkey will say farewell to a free currency market, reverting to “capital controls”.
Sources used in this broadcast
S&P downgrades Turkey’s outlook, updates dollar/TL forecast
https://www.paturkey.com/news/sp-downgrades-turkeys-outlook-updates-dollar-tl-forecast/2023/
News Analysis: Turkish lira may continue to weaken after general elections in May, experts say
http://english.news.cn/20230329/8ec389c732e94d699f964fbc9e45e0c0/c.html
Turkey Is Shunned by Emerging-Market Hedge Funds Before Vote
Turkish Lira to Weaken No Matter Who Wins Elections, Bank of America Analysts Say
Bond Traders Trim Bearish Turkey Bets on Possible Erdogan Defeat
Foreign investors test Turkey’s waters after years in the cold
