Video Commentary: Fate of TL, Interest Rates to be Set by Erdogan-Biden Meeting
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First contact between Presidents R. T. Erdogan and Joe Biden will take place on 14 June, on the sides of the Brussels NATO summit.
- White House had expressed its displeasure with Erdogan’s conduct through several means, asking for certain improvements.
- What are the key disputes? Allegations about Fethullah Gulen, Halkbank trial, the status of Kurds in North East Syria, Turkey’s poor human rights record, S-400 anti-missile systems.
- Biden holds most of the ace cards. But it is not clear what he shall demand from Erdogan if anything.
- Erdogan goes to the summit at the weakest juncture in his 20 year reign.
I focus on TL and interest rates as a simple way to explain how the summit results could reverberate in Turkish economy and politics.
- There are three scenarios. Only one is favorable to Turkey.
In the worst-case scenario a currency shock, recession, and early elections are in the cards.
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