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Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

past-due

 

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

 

  • Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.

 

  • I had independently calculated $35 bn.

 

  • $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.

 

  • Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.

 

  • Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?

 

 

The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)

 

Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities

 

Lower exports and tourism revenues

 

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

 

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

 

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