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Turkish Market Outlook: Markets Remain Volatile on US–Iran Headlines as BIST 100 Tests Key Resistance

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Global markets continue to trade in a volatile pattern driven by shifting headlines around US–Iran tensions. While temporary optimism has supported risk assets, uncertainty remains elevated. In Türkiye, the BIST 100 index is attempting to break above key resistance levels, while bond yields, FX markets, and commodities reflect a cautious and fragmented global outlook.

BIST 100 Struggles to Sustain Gains Above 13,000

The BIST 100 index once again moved toward the 13,100 level but failed to hold gains, highlighting persistent resistance in the market.

  • The 12,900 level remains a critical support zone
  • Holding above 13,000 is key for extending the upward trend
  • A sustained break above 13,100 could open the way toward 13,200–13,300

Analysts note that maintaining positions above 12,900 supports a short-term bullish outlook, while a drop below this level could trigger renewed downside pressure.

Geopolitical Headlines Drive Market Sentiment

Markets reacted positively to statements from US President Donald Trump suggesting progress in negotiations with Iran and the possibility of a temporary ceasefire.

However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the idea of negotiations, stating that Iran’s priority remains defending the country and ending the war rather than entering a ceasefire arrangement.

This divergence in messaging continues to fuel volatility, with markets highly sensitive to incoming headlines.

Bond Market Recovers After Sharp Sell-Off

Türkiye’s bond market showed signs of recovery following recent upward pressure on yields:

  • Benchmark bond yield declined to 41.57% (from 43.56%)
  • 10-year bond yield fell to 33.84% (from 35.22%)

Despite this improvement, analysts warn that:

  • Tight liquidity conditions
  • Elevated inflation expectations
  • Central bank funding at higher rates

continue to weigh on the bond market.

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USD/TRY Maintains Controlled Uptrend

The Turkish lira continues to weaken gradually, with USD/TRY stabilizing above key resistance:

  • 44.30 now acts as support
  • Upside targets: 44.40–44.50

The Central Bank of Türkiye’s FX sales auctions are helping to limit volatility, resulting in a more controlled upward trend in the exchange rate.

EUR/USD Attempts to Strengthen Above 1.16

The euro rebounded from 1.14 support and tested levels above 1.16 following Trump’s relatively constructive remarks.

  • Short-term trend remains positive
  • Resistance: 1.1670–1.17
  • Support: 1.15, with 1.14 as a key floor

However, the broader outlook remains influenced by:

  • Ongoing geopolitical risks
  • Delayed rate cut expectations from major central banks

Gold Recovers but Faces Structural Pressure

Gold prices rebounded after a sharp decline driven by:

  • Rising global bond yields
  • Strong US dollar

Recent easing in risk sentiment has supported a recovery toward $4,600, with:

  • $4,500 acting as support
  • $4,700 as the next resistance

Despite geopolitical tensions, gold remains sensitive to interest rate expectations and dollar strength.

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Key Market Drivers to Watch

Today’s focus includes:

  • US weekly jobless claims data (expected: 210,000)
  • Ongoing geopolitical developments
  • Signals on a potential ceasefire or escalation

Analysts caution that until there is:

  • A formal ceasefire
  • Reopening of critical supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz

risk levels are likely to remain elevated.

Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

While temporary optimism has supported markets, the overall environment remains fragile.

Key themes shaping the outlook:

  • High sensitivity to geopolitical headlines
  • Mixed signals across asset classes
  • Persistent uncertainty in global monetary policy

For investors, maintaining a cautious stance and closely monitoring key support and resistance levels remains essential.

Source:  QNB Invest

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