Turkish Market Preview: Geopolitical Tensions and CBRT Decisions

Market Sentiment: Navigating Energy Volatility and Policy Prudence

As of March 12, 2026, the Turkish financial landscape is dominated by a complex interplay between surging global energy costs and a pivotal domestic monetary policy meeting. The escalating friction between the U.S. and Iran—specifically regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz—has pushed Brent crude toward the $100 mark. For Turkey, a major energy importer, this shift carries significant weight for both the inflation trajectory and the current account deficit.

Leading brokerage firms suggest a cautious opening for the BIST100, with all eyes on the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) as it navigates a “de-inflation” path that has become increasingly steep.

1. İnfo Yatırım: The Macro Burden of Geopolitical Friction

İnfo Yatırım anticipates a flat opening for the BIST100, grounding its analysis in the “uncertainty premium” currently embedded in energy markets. The firm highlights that the lack of clarity regarding naval escorts for tankers or the potential mining of shipping lanes is driving a global risk-off sentiment.

Expert Quote: “The increasing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran and the ongoing conflict environment increase the uncertainties regarding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical transition points of global energy supply… This has increased the upward expectations regarding the global and domestic inflation outlook through energy costs.”

The firm provides a stark mathematical reality for the Turkish economy:

• Inflation Impact: Every $10 increase in Brent crude prices adds approximately 1.2 to 1.3 percentage points to annual domestic inflation.

• External Balance: Such an increase also expands the current account deficit by $2.5 billion.

Given these pressures, İnfo Yatırım expects the CBRT to maintain its “cautious stance” and leave the policy rate unchanged during today’s session.

2. Yapı Kredi Yatırım: Technical Resistance and the 13,500 Threshold

While macro headwinds persist, Yapı Kredi Yatırım focuses on the technical resilience of the BIST100. Following a correction that began in mid-February, the index has found a floor above 12,500, yet it faces stiff resistance as it attempts to reclaim higher ground.

Expert Quote: “We continue to closely monitor the 13,500 resistance in upward attacks… We observe that the reaction rise created on the 12,500 support of the intermediate correction movement met with sales pressure yesterday in its attacks on the 13,500 target resistance point.”

Key technical levels to watch:

• Primary Support: 12,800 is the first line of defense; staying above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum.

• Critical Resistance: 13,500 remains the immediate hurdle. However, the firm notes that a “strong upward trend” will only be confirmed if the index can breach and hold the 14,500 mark.

Investors are advised to be wary of failed breakouts at these resistance levels, which could trigger renewed selling pressure.

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3. Ünlü & Co: Disinflation Paths and Lira Resilience

Ünlü & Co provides a comprehensive look at the shifting narrative of 2026. The “rate cut fever” seen at the start of the year has cooled significantly following a cumulative two-month inflation print of 7.95%. The firm points out that the CBRT has already moved to tighten liquidity, pushing the weighted average cost of funding toward 40%.

Expert Quote: “Markets had caught a very strong momentum with expectations that there would be a interest rate cut at every MPC meeting in line with the disinflation process… However, the fact that inflation reached 7.95% in the first two months, combined with the rise in oil prices affecting inflation expectations, suggests that the CBRT will stay on hold in March.”

Regarding the Turkish Lira, the firm notes that the currency has displayed relative stability compared to other emerging market peers. This is attributed to the CBRT’s active liquidity management and strategic foreign exchange interventions. On the equity side, Ünlü & Co remains selectively optimistic but cautious:

Market Insight: “While we find it positive that the BIST-100 index rose to 13,200 points, we continue to think that closes above 13,400 points are required for a strong trend to form… Markets want to see concrete steps.”

The firm also reminds investors of the macro backdrop: the 2025 current account deficit closed at $25.2 billion (1.6% of GDP), making energy-driven spikes in the deficit a key metric for long-term stability.

Strategic Outlook: What to Expect Today

The consensus across the board is one of “watchful waiting.” The BIST100 is currently trapped in a corridor between 13,000 and 13,400.

Key Takeaways for Investors:

1. CBRT Meeting (14:00 Local Time): While a “no change” decision is priced in, the rhetoric in the summary notes regarding inflation “stickiness” and energy costs will dictate the market’s direction for the remainder of the month.

2. Energy Volatility: With oil hovering near $100, sectors sensitive to energy costs (Aviation and Glass/Chemicals) may see higher volatility compared to the banking sector, which benefits from the high-interest environment.

3. Geopolitical Noise: While political statements regarding a “near end” to the conflict provide temporary relief, the market is demanding a physical normalization of trade through the Strait of Hormuz before committing to a full-scale rally.

In summary, the 13,400 level acts as the gateway to a more optimistic spring. Until that level is cleared with significant volume, the market remains in a “reactionary” phase rather than a sustained bull trend.