Video Commentary: Turkish Economy to be Tested with 3 Major Shocks | Atilla Yesilada
tr in trouble
Turkish markets have delivered strong gains to investors since the beginning of the year. I maintain my view that this year Turkey will be one of the most attractive destinations among Emerging Markets. However, there are three major risks facing the economy over the next three months:
1. Iran – US/Israel War:
This would hit the Economy through higher oil prices.
2. Possible removal and/or arrest of Mansur Yavaş:
This could trigger volatility in foreign exchange markets and undermine foreign investor confidence.
3. Fed and CBRT monetary policy:
I do not expect interest rate cuts from either the Federal Reserve or the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in March, which could thwart growth and trigger another wave of bankruptcies, as well as undermining employment growth.
