Three New Polls Reveal Different Front-Runners in Turkish Politics

As Turkey’s political landscape continues to heat up, three newly released opinion polls from SONAR, Optimar, and ALF Research suggest that the race between the ruling AKP and the main opposition CHP remains fluid — with each survey highlighting a different leading party. While voter preferences remain volatile, early election sentiments are gaining momentum across the electorate.

SONAR Poll: 6-Point Lead for CHP

According to a leaked internal poll conducted by SONAR Research, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) maintains a lead of nearly six percentage points over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The results, which were distributed exclusively to SONAR’s VIP subscribers, indicate that if a general election were held today, 36.2% of voters would choose the CHP, while the AKP would secure 30.6%.

The pro-Kurdish DEM Party polled at 8.2%, while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) came in at 7.6%, and the center-right İYİ Party registered 7.2%. Compared to SONAR’s March data, MHP and İYİ each gained roughly 1 percentage point, while the DEM Party and Zafer Party saw small declines.

Public Sentiment: Opposition to Trustees, Demand for Snap Elections

The survey also reveals growing public discomfort with government interference in local governance. 55.6% of respondents said they oppose the appointment of a government trustee (kayyum) to Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB), while only 26% support such a move.

Additionally, 54.5% of respondents expressed a desire for early elections, while 36.7% said elections should be held as scheduled.

Optimar’s Findings: AKP Maintains Slight Edge, but CHP Competitive

In a separate April poll conducted by Optimar Research, involving 2,000 participants, voters were asked, “If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

The AKP led with 35.5%, followed by the CHP at 31.0%, showing a narrower margin compared to SONAR’s findings. DEM Party followed with 8.1%, MHP with 7.8%, and İYİ Party with 5.3%.

Smaller parties trailed further behind:

• Zafer Party: 3.2%

• New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah): 2.8%

• Great Unity Party (BBP): 1.3%

• Homeland Party (Memleket): 1.1%

• Victory Party (A Party): 0.2%

• Patriotic Party (Vatan): 0.1%

• Others: 3.7%

Optimar’s findings suggest that while the AKP maintains a dominant voter base, the CHP remains highly competitive, keeping political tension elevated despite general elections being more than three years away.

ALF Research: CHP Leads in Latest Poll

Meanwhile, ALF Research conducted a poll between May 1 and May 4 with 2,017 respondents, showing the CHP in first place with 32.1%, followed by the AKP at 29.7%.

The MHP polled at 8.6%, with DEM Party close behind at 8.1%. Other parties ranked as follows:

• Zafer Party: 4.1%

• New Welfare Party: 3.8%

• İYİ Party: 3.5%

• A Party: 3.5%

• BBP: 2.2%

• Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP): 1.7%

• Innovation Party (YMP): 1.6%

• Others: 1.1%

Analysis: Fragmentation and Strategic Reevaluation

Across all three polls, one trend remains clear: Turkish voter preferences are fractured, and the traditional dominance of major parties is increasingly being challenged by a fragmented opposition. With early election talk growing and key metropolitan municipalities under threat of government intervention, public sentiment may shift further in the coming months.

These polls serve as a signal to both government and opposition actors that electoral strategy, messaging, and alliances will be crucial in shaping outcomes — particularly if the country veers toward snap elections.

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