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Turkish Market Preview: BIST 100 Eyes 15,000 as Global “Tariff War” Hits New Peak

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The Turkish financial markets are starting the day with a cautious but optimistic tone as local equities decouple from global volatility. While Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) shows technical strength by reclaiming key psychological levels, the global backdrop is dominated by a legal and trade showdown in Washington.

1. BIST 100: Technical Bottom Formed at 13,700

After a period of profit-taking, the BIST 100 index has successfully established a short-term floor at 13,700. By climbing back above 14,000, the index has signaled a renewed bullish trend.

  • Resistance Levels: Watch for 14,350 and 14,533. A sustained move above these could trigger a rally toward the long-term target of 15,000.

  • Banking Sector: Large-cap banks continue to lead the recovery, with the banking index (XBANK) outperforming the broader market by over 2% in recent sessions.

  • Strategy: Analysts suggest maintaining long positions as long as the 13,700 support holds. Trading opportunities are opening up for a move toward the 14,500 resistance zone.

2. Global Shockwave: Trump Hikes Tariffs to 15%

A legal earthquake in the US has reshaped the global trade narrative. The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by using “national emergency” laws to impose sweeping global tariffs.

  • The Response: In an immediate counter-move, Trump announced he would leverage the 1974 Trade Act to raise the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% for a 150-day period.

  • Market Impact: This move has injected fresh uncertainty into global supply chains. While the US Dollar Index (DXY) has softened due to policy confusion, it remains a volatile “safe haven” play.

3. FX & Bonds: Lira Under Pressure, Yields Stabilize

  • USD/TRY: Despite the global dollar retreat, the Turkish Lira remains under pressure. The pair is testing the 43.80 support-turned-resistance, with 43.90 and 44.00 as the next targets.

  • Turkish Bonds: The domestic bond market is finding support from expectations of a CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) rate cut in the coming months. 10-year yields are steady at 30.47%, while the 5-year CDS (Credit Default Swap) has eased to 221 bps, indicating a slight improvement in Turkey’s risk profile.

  • EUR/USD: The pair is regaining ground above 1.18, eyeing the 1.19 resistance as investors digest the impact of US trade policies on European exporters.

4. Commodities: Gold Eyes the $5,200 Mark

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—specifically between the US and Iran—combined with tariff uncertainties are fueling a “flight to safety” in precious metals.

  • Gold (XAU/USD): Gold has established a firm base at $5,000/oz. If it clears the $5,100 local resistance, a rally toward $5,200 or even $5,400 is technically feasible.

  • Gram Gold: Local prices are benefiting from the dual support of rising global gold and a steady USD/TRY. The 7,200 TL level is the immediate target, with a primary floor at 7,000 TL.

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