Turkey’s SAMEKS  composite PMI signals continued expansion in January, driven by services

Summary:

Turkey’s seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite PMI rose to 52.7 in January 2026, remaining above the expansion threshold and indicating continued economic growth. While activity in the services sector strengthened markedly, manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory, highlighting growing sectoral divergence in the economy.

Composite Index Remains in Expansion Zone

Turkey’s seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index increased by 1.3 points month-on-month to 52.7 in January 2026, according to data released on Monday. Readings above the 50 threshold indicate expansion in economic activity.

The improvement was largely driven by the services sector, while weakness in manufacturing limited the overall gain.

Manufacturing Activity Slips Below Threshold

The Manufacturing SAMEKS Index declined by 3.9 points from the previous month to 48.8, falling below the 50 expansion threshold and signaling a contraction in industrial activity.

Sub-indices showed broad-based softening:

• Production fell sharply by 8.4 points to 44.6, reflecting weaker demand and seasonal effects at the start of the year.

• New orders declined by 4.7 points to 47.6, pointing to softer demand conditions, though analysts noted the impact of temporary factors.

• Input purchases edged down slightly by 0.6 points to 55.5, suggesting firms have not fully revised down production expectations.

• Inventories rose by 1.1 points to 54.6, indicating cautious inventory management.

• Supplier delivery times fell by 4.4 points to 48.8, attributed to temporary logistical adjustments rather than structural supply-chain disruptions.

• Employment eased by 1.6 points to 51.9, remaining marginally in expansion territory.

Despite the monthly decline, relative resilience in inventories, input purchases and employment suggests manufacturing activity may stabilize in the coming period.

Services Sector Shows Strong Recovery

In contrast, the Services SAMEKS Index climbed 4.5 points to 54.5, signaling a robust expansion.

Key components showed notable improvement:

• Business activity rose by 1.6 points to 47.3, indicating a moderation in demand weakness.

• Input purchases surged by 14.4 points to 71.9, reflecting stronger short-term activity expectations.

• Inventories increased by 3.2 points to 46.7, suggesting a slowdown in inventory depletion.

• Supplier delivery times edged down slightly to 53.3, maintaining favorable supply conditions.

• Employment rose by 4.6 points to 51.5, returning to expansion territory and signaling improving labor demand.

The data indicate that the services sector is playing a leading role in Turkey’s ongoing economic recovery.

Sectoral Divergence Becomes More Pronounced

Overall, January’s SAMEKS data confirm that Turkey’s economy remains in expansion territory, but with clear divergence between sectors. While services activity continues to strengthen, manufacturing faces short-term headwinds.

Economists say this pattern suggests a moderate and uneven growth outlook, with services likely to remain the primary driver of economic momentum in the near term, while a recovery in industrial activity may take longer to materialize.