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SAMEKS Composite Index Edges Up in June, but Economic Activity Remains Sluggish

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The Turkish economy continued to show signs of stagnation in June, with both the industrial and services sectors struggling to recover despite improvements in input demand and select sub-indices.

Composite Index Slightly Up, But Still Below Neutral Level

According to MUSIAD, a conservative  business assocation which compiles SAMEKS, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose slightly by 0.2 points month-on-month to 46.3 in June.

Despite this modest increase, the index remains below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating that the overall slowdown in economic activity persisted during the month.

Türkiye’s Manufacturing Slump Deepens: PMI Hits 8-Month Low at 46.7

1. Industrial Sector: Order Rebound Fails to Lift Overall Sentiment

The Industrial Sector SAMEKS Index, also adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects, rose to 46.5 points in June 2025, up 2.8 points from May. Nevertheless, the reading remains below the 50 threshold, underscoring the continued softness in industrial activity.

Key Sub-Index Developments:

  • New Orders: Rose sharply by 6.9 points to 45.3, marking the main driver of the sector’s monthly improvement, though still not enough to signal expansion.

  • Input Purchases: Increased by 3.5 points to 51.9, exceeding the neutral level. This suggests improved coordination with supply chains.

  • Production: Climbed 5.5 points, but remains below 50, with analysts citing lingering base effects year-on-year.

  • Final Goods Inventories: Dropped significantly by 6.4 points to 38.9, indicating a faster-than-expected stock depletion phase.

  • Supplier Delivery Times: Fell by 2.8 points to 47.1, suggesting materials were procured faster than anticipated despite challenging conditions.

  • Employment: Dipped 0.1 points to 43.3, reflecting an evident contraction in labor demand.

Despite a rebound in orders and input purchases, the Industrial Index remained in contractionary territory, underlining the sector’s difficulty in transitioning into a sustained recovery.

2. Services Sector: Job Losses and Demand Weakness Persist

The Services Sector SAMEKS Index declined by 0.4 points in June to 47.6, reflecting a continuing stagnation in service-related business volume.

Key Sub-Index Developments:

  • Input Purchases: Jumped 7.6 points to 58.6, indicating strong raw material demand despite weak end-market consumption.

  • Final Goods Inventories: Increased slightly by 0.7 points to 48.7, suggesting that stock drawdowns have nearly come to a halt due to increased inputs.

  • Supplier Delivery Times: Rose by 1.8 points to 47.2, as procurement delays continued to weigh on operational flow.

  • Business Volume: Decreased 1 point to 42, staying well below the neutral level, consistent with the sustained decline in overall activity.

  • Employment: Continued its downward trajectory, falling 1.7 points to 45.9, reflecting ongoing stress in the sector’s labor market.

With both business volume and employment slipping, the services sector SAMEKS reading also remained below the 50 threshold, sustaining its negative outlook.

Outlook: Mild Optimism for Q3, Recovery Expected by Mid-2026

While the SAMEKS Composite Index showed a modest improvement in June compared to the previous month, the overall assessment for Q2 2025 points to continued stagnation in the real economy.

Encouragingly, both sectors witnessed a pickup in input purchases, and the industrial sector registered visible gains in new orders and production, hinting at gradually improving demand conditions.

However, the declines in business volume and employment in services present a downside risk that tempers broader optimism.

Analysts interpret the data as neutral in the short term, noting that underlying pressures are likely to ease partially in Q3 2025, with a full rebound above the 50 threshold not expected until Q2 2026.

Sources MARBAS Brokerage Research

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