📰 TURKISH POLLS SHOW WIDE DISPARITY: RULING PARTY STRUGGLES, MAIN OPPOSITION’S LEAD IN QUESTION

Recent Surveys from GENAR and Gündemar reveal significant differences in party support. While economic woes weigh on the AK Party, the CHP’s status as the leading opposition is under scrutiny. Analysts flag minimum wage hikes as a crucial factor.

ANKARA – The latest public opinion polls concerning political party support in Turkey present conflicting signals for both the ruling and opposition blocs. The results contain critical warnings that could potentially reshape President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategies, placing particular focus on the impact of the economy and the opposition’s ability to generate new policy.

Recent surveys from GENAR and Gündemar show a substantial divergence in reported voting intentions for the country’s main parties.

The Chasm Between Two Major Polls

GENAR’s data places the AK Party in the lead with 33.7%, followed closely by the CHP at 31.8%. The DEM Party is third at 9.4%, with the MHP at 8.4%.

Gündemar’s data, however, shows the CHP clearly in first place at 35.25%, with the AK Party trailing below the 30% threshold at 29.09%. This latter result gained significant attention after President Erdoğan had recently referred to the CHP as the “second party.”

Both polls highlight the vulnerability of key smaller parties: the Zafer Party registers between 3.7% and 5.16%, and the İYİ Party sits close to or below the national threshold at between 4.5% and 4.70%.

Economy Becomes the Ruling Party’s Anchor

Political analysts argue that the economy is the primary factor inhibiting the AK Party’s support. While developments in foreign policy may boost the government’s profile, persistent economic hardship continues to drag the AK Party’s ratings down.

The GENAR report specifically underscored the critical importance of the 2026 minimum wage, pension, and low-income salary adjustments. The report stresses that meaningful improvements for these demographics could bring back voters who previously abstained from voting as a protest. Such an economic uplift could potentially net the AK Party an additional 5% of voters. Conversely, failure to deliver the expected increases would risk alienating these voters entirely, as economic struggles remain a burning issue for low-income citizens.

CHP’s Fragile Lead: Criticized for Lack of Policy

The narrow lead in the GENAR poll brings the CHP’s position under scrutiny. The opposition party previously surged to 35.6% following controversial judicial processes involving Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, but this boost was temporary.

Analysts suggest that legal issues concerning opposition figures have forced the opposition base to consolidate around the CHP, preventing its support from dipping below 30%. However, the party faces criticism for its inability to articulate a clear vision.

Critics warn that because the CHP has failed to produce substantial new policy beyond the narrative surrounding İmamoğlu, the party risks entering a “free fall” toward the sub-30% range as political “normalization” sets in.

Presidential Run-Off Results are Decisive

The Gündemar poll also included crucial projections for a potential second-round presidential election, showing President Erdoğan trailing significantly against three key opposition figures:

• Mansur Yavaş: 60.34% vs. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 39.66%
• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 57.97% vs. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 42.03%
• Özgür Özel: 53.40% vs. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 46.60%

These findings strongly suggest that the incumbent would face a severe challenge in a run-off scenario. This table indicates that the ruling bloc must carefully re-evaluate its strategy leading into the upcoming local elections and beyond.