New Poll Puts CHP Ahead of AKP as Erdoğan Trails Opposition Figures

The latest Gündemar Research poll has reshaped Turkey’s political conversation, showing the Republican People’s Party (CHP) pulling ahead of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for the first time in months — while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan trails prominent opposition figures in hypothetical runoff scenarios.

CHP Rises Above 35%, AKP Slips Below 30%

According to Gündemar’s October 2025 survey, when respondents were asked “If a parliamentary election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”, the CHP emerged as the leading party with 35.25% of the vote.

The AKP, meanwhile, continued its downward trend, polling at 29.09%, remaining below the symbolic 30% threshold for a second consecutive month.

MHP and DEM Cross Key Thresholds

The DEM Party secured 8.67%, while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) stayed above the 7% electoral threshold with 7.13% support.

The poll also highlighted growing attention toward Ümit Özdağ’s Zafer Party, which recorded 5.16%, signaling rising nationalist sentiment among undecided voters. The İYİ Party, a potential coalition ally for Zafer, followed with 4.70%.

Political analysts suggest that this balance hints at a fragmented opposition landscape, yet one that still commands a majority against the ruling bloc if coordinated effectively.

Erdoğan Trails in Second-Round Scenarios

Perhaps the most striking results came from Gündemar’s second-round presidential simulations, where President Erdoğan fell behind all three major CHP figures tested:

• Mansur Yavaş: 60.34% vs. Erdoğan’s 39.66%

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 57.97% vs. 42.03%

• Özgür Özel: 53.40% vs. 46.60%

These figures suggest that, despite CHP’s internal debates and leadership transition, public support for its key mayors and leaders remains strong.

Erdoğan’s “Second Party” Remark Sparks Reaction

The poll results followed Erdoğan’s recent comment referring to the CHP as “the second party,” prompting swift reactions online. Gündemar’s data directly challenges that statement, positioning the CHP not only as a growing opposition but as the country’s leading political force.

Interpreting the Shift

Analysts attribute the momentum to several factors:

• Persistent economic hardship and inflation are eroding voter confidence in AKP policies.

• The local governance success of CHP-led municipalities such as Ankara and Istanbul.

• Renewed efforts by CHP leader Özgür Özel to modernize the party’s image and reconnect with working-class and youth voters.

Meanwhile, AKP insiders reportedly view the poll as a warning signal, emphasizing the need to rebuild economic credibility before the next national election cycle.

Changing Political Landscape

The survey underscores a significant realignment in Turkey’s political landscape heading into 2026. If current trends hold, the CHP could consolidate its position as the dominant opposition force, while Erdoğan’s path to re-election may become more uncertain than ever.

The Gündemar poll, though just a snapshot, suggests that Turkish politics may be entering a new competitive era — one where the balance of power no longer guarantees incumbency.