September Polls Reveal: Erdoğan Trails Behind, But AKP Remains Resilient

Opposition candidates maintain lead in presidential race while parliamentary preferences remain neck-and-neck

New polling data from three separate research firms suggests President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a widening deficit in head-to-head matchups against leading opposition figures, including imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş. However, results from the latest parliamentary election polls reveal that the ruling AKP still commands a solid base, trailing the main opposition CHP by a razor-thin margin.

ALF Poll: Yavaş Leads Erdoğan by 9 Points

In a September survey conducted by ALF Research and Consultancy, 54.6% of respondents said they would vote for Mansur Yavaş if a presidential election were held this Sunday, while only 45.4% backed President Erdoğan. The poll, conducted between September 8–12 among 2,000 participants, comes amid speculation that Yavaş may be positioned as the CHP’s alternative candidate if İmamoğlu remains barred from running.

The numbers indicate a notable shift in public opinion. Yavaş, who has maintained a technocratic and low-profile leadership style in Ankara, is increasingly seen as a unifying figure across opposition lines.

İmamoğlu Gains Ground Despite Imprisonment

A separate poll by Ulusal Araştırma, tracking public sentiment since March 19, found that Ekrem İmamoğlu, currently jailed in Silivri’s Marmara Prison, would beat Erdoğan by 11.8 percentage points in a first-round presidential contest.

• İmamoğlu: 38.0% (46.8% after undecided votes distributed)

• Erdoğan: 35.0%

Public sympathy for İmamoğlu appears to be growing. The survey shows that 64% of voters believe his imprisonment is unjust, and that legal proceedings against him are politically motivated. Analysts suggest this perception is enhancing his credibility as a victim of political repression.

Runoff Scenario Favors İmamoğlu

In a second-round simulation conducted by HBS Research in July, İmamoğlu’s support rose to 54.9%, significantly ahead of Erdoğan’s 41.3%. This indicates that in a head-to-head runoff, the opposition figure may comfortably secure a majority—even while behind bars.

Parliamentary Poll: CHP Edges Ahead, AKP Still Strong

Meanwhile, a Malabadi Haber-commissioned poll by ASAL Research, conducted between September 18–26, provides a snapshot of party preferences for a hypothetical parliamentary election. After reallocating undecided votes, the CHP led with 32.6%, just ahead of AKP’s 31.5%—a difference well within the margin of error.

While the CHP tops the chart, the data reflects a tight race between Turkey’s two largest parties, suggesting that while Erdoğan himself is becoming more vulnerable, the AKP still retains a significant electoral infrastructure and loyal voter base.

Undecideds Remain a Decisive Factor

Before adjusting for undecided voters, uncertainty was strikingly high, with 27% of respondents reporting no firm party preference. Once distributed, these votes significantly influenced the final numbers—underlining the importance of campaign momentum and media messaging in the months ahead.

Implications: A Divided but Shifting Electorate

• CHP maintains a fragile edge, benefiting from Erdoğan’s personal unpopularity, especially among urban and younger voters.

• AKP shows resilience in parliamentary races, suggesting Erdoğan’s base may split its vote between party and president.

• Both İmamoğlu and Yavaş are proving viable challengers, with broader appeal than other opposition figures tested in past cycles.

As Turkey moves closer to another critical election cycle, voter behavior remains highly fluid. Yet, for now, the message from the polls is clear: Erdoğan is no longer unbeatable—at least not in a fair fight.