Three Recent Polls Confirm Power Shift: CHP Pulls Ahead as AKP Falls to Second Place

Three major polls released between late July and early August indicate a significant shift in Turkey’s political landscape. The main opposition CHP is emerging as the leading party, while President Erdoğan’s ruling AKP falls to second place. With pressure mounting for early elections, the political temperature is rising across the country.

HBS Poll: CHP Leads with a Clear Margin

According to HBS Research, which surveyed 3,200 voters face-to-face between July 30 and August 3, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) would receive 34.8% of the vote if a general election were held this Sunday, while the ruling AKP would garner 29.0%.

Here are the full results from the HBS poll:

• CHP: 34.8%

• AKP: 29.0%

• DEM Party: 8.1%

• MHP: 7.4%

• Good Party (İYİ): 6.2%

• New Welfare Party (YRP): 4.3%

• Victory Party: 4.3%

• Others: 5.9%

This data confirms the trend seen since the March 2024 local elections, in which the CHP emerged as the country’s largest party, shaking the AKP’s political dominance. Since then, calls for early elections have intensified, led by CHP Chairman Özgür Özel, who has been organizing mass rallies across Turkey under the slogan “Defend the Will of the Nation.”

Betimar Poll: AKP Barely Holds the Lead

Betimar Research, a firm known for its accurate projections in past elections, published its August nationwide survey based on interviews with 3,000 participants across 81 provinces between July 28 and August 1.

After redistributing undecided voters, the poll results are as follows:

• AKP: 33.2%

• CHP: 29.8%

• MHP: 9.0%

• DEVA Party: 8.6%

• Good Party (İYİ): 5.3%

• Victory Party: 4.4%

• YRP: 2.8%

• A Party: 2.9%

• TIP (Workers’ Party of Turkey): 1.5%

• Others: 2.5%

While the AKP narrowly maintains its lead in this survey, the narrowing gap with the CHP suggests a shifting dynamic. DEVA and MHP also show relatively strong performances, potentially altering alliance strategies.

Gündemar Survey: CHP at 37.2%, AKP at 28.9%

Gündemar Research’s latest “Turkey Agenda” survey, conducted between July 20–26 with 2,256 participants via CATI and CAWI methods, shows the CHP consolidating its lead:

• CHP: 37.2%

• AKP: 28.9%

• DEM Party: 9.5%

• Victory Party: 6.4%

• MHP: 5.2%

• Good Party (İYİ): 3.7%

• YRP: 3.2%

• Anahat Party: 1.5%

• TIP: 1.3%

• Others: 3.1%

The Gündemar poll reflects the growing support for the CHP, especially in light of continued protests following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the party’s likely presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, the DEM Party emerges as a strong third force, and the Victory Party surpasses the electoral threshold. However, the Good Party and smaller actors like TIP remain below the 7% barrier.

The Growing Call for Early Elections

The momentum gained by the CHP in all three polls has strengthened demands for early general elections. Özgür Özel’s nationwide campaign and the public backlash over İmamoğlu’s arrest have intensified pressure on the ruling AKP-MHP alliance.

Still, the government resists calls for early elections. High inflation, economic hardship, and sliding poll numbers make the prospect unappealing for the ruling bloc. But the opposition shows no signs of backing down.

What the Polls Reveal

• CHP leads in two of three major polls, and ranks second in the third, confirming its upward trend.

• The AKP is showing signs of stagnation, polling below 30% in two of the three surveys.

• DEM Party secures a consistent third place with support above 8% in all polls.

• MHP and the Victory Party are flirting with the electoral threshold, while the Good Party is at risk of falling short.

• DEVA and other smaller parties may play a kingmaker role in potential alliances.

As early election chatter intensifies and Erdoğan’s political calculus becomes more complex, these polls will be closely monitored by both political camps and international observers.

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