Video Commentary:  Turkish Lira After Elections: Will It Crash, or Soar?

Turkish Lira after elections:  Will it crash, or soar?


  • Turkey’s dual elections scheduled for 14 May is not only generating immense political frictions at home, but also spills over to the economy.
  • A major for economic agents is whether CBRT’s  implicit peg on the exchange rate will be maintained.
  • Recently, a slew of reports and analyses concluded that TL is doomed to fall significantly after the elections, no matter which camp emerges victorious.
  • Bizarre events can never be ruled out in Turkey, but if the opposition sweeps to victory, there is no sentimental or fundamental reason for TL deprecation.
  • In Erdogan and allies win once again, Turkey will say farewell to a free currency market, reverting to “capital controls”.

Sources used in this broadcast

S&P downgrades Turkey’s outlook, updates dollar/TL forecast



News Analysis: Turkish lira may continue to weaken after general elections in May, experts say


Turkey Is Shunned by Emerging-Market Hedge Funds Before Vote


Turkish Lira to Weaken No Matter Who Wins Elections, Bank of America Analysts Say


Bond Traders Trim Bearish Turkey Bets on Possible Erdogan Defeat


Foreign investors test Turkey’s waters after years in the cold



Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.