Some 7.8 percent of participants in a recent study said they were undecided on who they would vote for if there were elections this week. The rate is a historic low for Turkey, leading pollster MetroPoll’s chief Özer Sencar said in a tweet on Friday.
Meanwhile, another 6.4 percent said they would cast a protest vote.
According to the June version of the Turkey’s Pulse study, elections could drastically change the current balance of seats in parliament.
Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would win 27.6 percent of the vote, MetroPoll found, while the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) stands to win 19.8 percent—before undecideds are allocated to parties.
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Currently the second largest opposition bloc, left-wing pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) would still clear Turkey’s unusually high electoral threshold but lose some of its previous vote, winning 10.5 percent.
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Centre-right opposition Good Party (İP) would win 14 percent of the vote, while AKP-allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), former members of which founded the İP, would fall below the threshold, winning 4.5 percent.
The study shows nationalist far-right Victory Party (anti-immigrant, ZP) to be on the rise, with 1.8 percent of the vote won.
Felicity Party (SP), which continues in the same conservative-Islamist tradition as early AKP, would win 1.5 percent of the vote, and AKP breakaways founded by former ministers DEVA and Future Party (GP) would win 1.4 and 0.7 percent respectively.
Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023 the latest. Despite rumors of snap elections in November, government officials have repeatedly said the elections would be held as scheduled.
On the presidential polls, Erdogan, too, sems to bed losing support, with only one poll by ASAL out of seven in June-July period showing him winning against the leading opposition candidates. Erdogan already announced his candidacy, while the centrist opposition bloc consisting of six parties, called the Nation will do so much later in the year, assuming it can unite on a single candidate. HDP remains undecided whether to run a nominee or not.
A three month moving average of polls show declining below 30% first time in 30 years, while the difference between AKP and its ally MHP and the main opposition bloc jumped to 8 points. According to Turkish press, Erdogan and advisors may have already conceded the parliament to the opposition, concentrating their energies on keeping the presidency.
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