Turkish Economic Outlook 2022: WHAT a train wreck! | Real Turkey
- Recap of 2021 (Positives): Double-digit GDP growth, modest current account deficit
- Negatives: Soaring inflation, stubborn unemployment, and unprecedented poverty.
- Erdogan’s Alice in the Wonderland economic model will end by March.
- Early elections can drastically alter our predictions.
- Exchange rate and price uncertainty push the economy into a complete “sudden stop”.
- Even with exchange rate controls, 2022 CPI will not drop below 30%.
- Good news: No current account deficits. Bad news: We can’t afford imports.
- Unemployment likely to catapult towards 25-28% range.
- Income distribution to worsen further.
- Watch for restricted access to global credit markets and bad loans.
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