Turkish Economic Outlook 2022: WHAT a train wreck!

Atilla YeşiladaPosted on

 

 

Turkish Economic Outlook 2022: WHAT a train wreck! | Real Turkey

 

  • Recap of 2021 (Positives): Double-digit GDP growth, modest current account deficit

 

  • Negatives: Soaring inflation, stubborn unemployment, and unprecedented poverty.

 

  • Erdogan’s Alice in the Wonderland economic model will end by March.

 

  • Early elections can drastically alter our predictions.

 

  • Exchange rate and price uncertainty push the economy into a complete “sudden stop”.

 

  • Even with exchange rate controls, 2022 CPI will not drop below 30%.

 

  • Good news: No current account deficits. Bad news: We can’t afford imports.

 

  • Unemployment likely to catapult towards 25-28% range.

 

  • Income distribution to worsen further.

 

  • Watch for restricted access to global credit markets and bad loans.

 

For more;

www.paturkey.com

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.