Turkey must hike rates after elections. Who will get spanked bad?
- Turkish inflation is running at a rate of 50%, with a higher pace to ensue after earthquake, massive porkbarreling. CBRT policy rate is only 8.5%. What is wrong with this picture?
- There is a consensus among experts and investors massive rate hikes are inevitable.
- Kilicdaroglu government will “normalize” monetary policy immediately. Erdogan will be FORCED to do so in the winter months.
- How much will rate have to go up?
- Who will get hurt?
- Are banks resilient to rate hikes?
- Budget deficits will widen, bankruptcies will increase, indebted household will suffer.
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