Turkey:  Morning post

MSCI Turkey underperformed the MSCI EM by 1.1% on Friday. BIST-100 gained 0.1%, closing at the level  of 1,419 with a trading volume higher than the last 5 days’ average. Banking index lost 0.6% and industrials  index lost 0.4%. Interest rate on 2-year benchmark bond rate remained stable at 17.68% while 10-year bond rate inched up to 17.15% (up 3bps). TRY depreciated by 1.4% vs USD to 8.63 on Friday, while  trading around 8.71 this morning.

In terms of local dataflow, International Investment Position (July),  Central Government Debt Stock (August), Treasury Issue: Fixed Coupon GB (20.9.2023), Treasury Issue:  CPI Indexed GB (14.1.2026) would be watched today. We expect a negative opening for Turkish equities.


Today, Treasury’s issues would be followed

Treasury would issue 2-year fixed coupon G-bond (TRT200923T18) and 4-year CPI Indexed G-bond (TRT140126T11). After these  issuances 5 of 8 scheduled auctions for September to be completed.


President Erdogan would join UN General Assembly in New York

President Erdogan went to the US due to the United Nations General Assembly. Today, President Erdogan would join an opening ceremony of a new Turkish House in New York. President would give a speech at the UN General Assembly tomorrow and would attend an investor conference which organized by TAİK (Turkey-U.S. Business Council). President Erdogan said on Sunday that he would meet Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week in New York.


England removed Turkey from red travel list

This decision could be slightly positive on Turkey’s tourism revenues. However, we should state that this possible positive impact could be extremely slightly due the high tourism season has been almost come to an end.

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BRSA lowers max consumer loan duration and extends flexibility over NPL recognition, CAR calculation rules

The Bank has lowered maximum duration on consumer loans over TL50,000 from 36 months to 24 months, while announcing no  change in required reserve rules for the said loans. The Bank has extended the NPL recognition rule that had raised the unpaid period from 90 to 180 days indefinitely for the outstanding loan portfolios (except consumer loans) as of 1st October and ended this advantage for new loans. The Bank also extended indefinitely, the method of exchange rate calculation used in valuation for risk weighted assets (RWA) in CARs to past 252 working days average. We do not expect the consumer loan duration change to have a major impact on consumer loan demand, whereas NPL recognition and RWA calculation rule extensions would help keep cost of risk at low and CAR at higher levels for banks. Positive.



Yatırım Finansman  Securities Daily Report


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.