Turkey faces mounting domestic and international challenges that could significantly impact its stability and territorial cohesion. While Ankara has pursued ambitious geopolitical objectives—such as reviving its historical influence through a neo-Ottoman framework and seeking greater integration with Turkic nations in Central Asia—shifting global dynamics and unresolved internal conflicts cast doubt on these aspirations. Among the most pressing concerns is Turkey’s long-standing Kurdish issue, coupled with evolving U.S. policies that could reshape the regional balance of power. These pressures may escalate if left unaddressed, testing the nation’s unity and resilience.
The Kurdish Question: A Lingering Divide
The Kurdish issue remains a critical fault line within Turkey’s political and social landscape. Comprising nearly 20% of the population, Kurds have historically faced systemic marginalization, cultural suppression, and restricted political participation. Although initial promises of reform under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership signaled hope for inclusivity, subsequent policies have largely reverted to military crackdowns, legal restrictions, and the suppression of pro-Kurdish political movements.
The disenfranchisement of Kurdish communities has fueled widespread resentment, particularly in southeastern regions where economic disparities and violence remain prevalent. The Turkish government’s stringent actions against the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and its military operations against Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq have further deepened this divide. With global shifts increasingly favoring Kurdish autonomy, Turkey’s domestic approach risks exacerbating internal tensions rather than resolving them.
U.S. Policy and the Emerging Kurdish State Debate
Washington’s stance on Kurdish autonomy has introduced an additional layer of complexity to Turkey’s internal struggles. The United States’ ongoing support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish militia, has provided Kurdish groups with greater political and military leverage in the region. Initially framed as a temporary alliance to counter ISIS, this partnership has evolved into a broader geopolitical strategy that could influence Kurdish aspirations for statehood.
The potential formation of a Kurdish autonomous region encompassing parts of Syria, Iraq, and Turkey aligns with broader Western interests in the Middle East, positioning a secular, non-Arab entity as a key strategic partner. Such developments present a direct challenge to Ankara, which perceives these movements as existential threats to its territorial integrity. The implications of an internationally recognized Kurdish entity would not only reshape regional alliances but also intensify domestic unrest within Turkey.
Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Versus Domestic Realities
Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has actively sought to reassert its influence across the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia through a foreign policy doctrine often described as neo-Ottomanism. This strategy has manifested in military interventions in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, as well as assertive policies in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, these geopolitical ambitions often conflict with the country’s pressing domestic issues.
Economic instability remains a growing concern, with high inflation, currency depreciation, and rising public debt undermining confidence in the government. Social polarization, fueled by ethnic, religious, and ideological divisions, further complicates national cohesion. The Kurdish issue stands as a stark contradiction to Ankara’s broader geopolitical aspirations—an unresolved domestic conflict that undermines Turkey’s ability to project stability and unity on the global stage.
Possible Scenarios: What Lies Ahead?
Several possible trajectories could emerge as Turkey grapples with these challenges:
- Internal Unrest: Increased marginalization and economic hardship could trigger widespread protests and resistance, particularly in Kurdish-majority areas.
- Regional Escalation: Turkey’s military operations in Syria and Iraq could backfire, drawing Ankara into prolonged conflicts with Kurdish factions and their international allies.
- International Isolation: Continued tensions with NATO allies and Western powers could lead to diplomatic and economic repercussions, further straining Turkey’s economy.
- Kurdish Autonomy Gains Momentum: Growing international support for Kurdish self-governance could accelerate separatist movements, directly challenging Turkey’s territorial integrity.
The Path Forward
Turkey stands at a decisive moment in its modern history. While Ankara’s external ambitions remain bold, its internal vulnerabilities demand urgent attention. Without meaningful political reforms and economic stabilization, the nation risks deepening internal divisions at a time when global realignments are reshaping the Middle East. The coming years will determine whether Turkey can reconcile its geopolitical ambitions with the realities of domestic cohesion or whether these tensions will lead to greater instability.
By addressing its internal fractures and fostering inclusive governance, Turkey has the opportunity to navigate these challenges effectively. However, failing to do so may further expose the country to geopolitical turbulence and internal discord, potentially altering its trajectory in the global arena.