Will Trump Trigger Better Turkey – EU Relations?

As Donald Trump prepares to begin his new term as U.S. president, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transformations, particularly in Europe and its neighboring regions. This shift, driven by factors like Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the evolving dynamics in the Middle East, underscores the urgent need for the European Union (EU) to redefine its security strategy—one that includes closer cooperation with Turkey.

EU-Turkey Security Dialogue: A Timely Imperative

Chatham House senior consulting fellow Galip Dalay recently argued that Europe must reassess Turkey’s role within its security framework. Highlighting uncertainties around Trump’s NATO commitment, Dalay suggests that Turkey’s inclusion in European security efforts is critical.

“Trump’s return might provide much-needed impetus for the EU and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and broader foreign and security policy cooperation,” Dalay stated, referencing the complex security environment marked by the war in Ukraine and changing geopolitical realities.

Erdogan’s Strategic Maneuvering

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has capitalized on these shifts, asserting Turkey’s indispensability to European defense. Speaking at the European Political Community summit in Budapest, Erdogan emphasized:

“Türkiye’s full inclusion in the European Union’s defense efforts is indispensable for Europe’s peace and security.”

Erdogan’s confidence is fueled by Turkey’s position as NATO’s second-largest military power and the largest land force in the bloc, a role that could become even more critical should the U.S. reconsider its NATO commitments under Trump.

Turkey and the EU: A Renewed Opportunity for Security Cooperation Amid Global Shifts

As Donald Trump prepares to begin his new term as U.S. president, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transformations, particularly in Europe and its neighboring regions. This shift, driven by factors like Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the evolving dynamics in the Middle East, underscores the urgent need for the European Union (EU) to redefine its security strategy—one that includes closer cooperation with Turkey.


EU-Turkey Security Dialogue: A Timely Imperative

Chatham House senior consulting fellow Galip Dalay recently argued that Europe must reassess Turkey’s role within its security framework. Highlighting uncertainties around Trump’s NATO commitment, Dalay suggests that Turkey’s inclusion in European security efforts is critical.

“Trump’s return might provide much-needed impetus for the EU and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and broader foreign and security policy cooperation,” Dalay stated, referencing the complex security environment marked by the war in Ukraine and changing geopolitical realities.


Erdogan’s Strategic Maneuvering

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has capitalized on these shifts, asserting Turkey’s indispensability to European defense. Speaking at the European Political Community summit in Budapest, Erdogan emphasized:

“Türkiye’s full inclusion in the European Union’s defense efforts is indispensable for Europe’s peace and security.”

Erdogan’s confidence is fueled by Turkey’s position as NATO’s second-largest military power and the largest land force in the bloc, a role that could become even more critical should the U.S. reconsider its NATO commitments under Trump.


Geopolitical Dynamics in Flux

Turkey’s strategic relevance extends beyond its NATO membership. The downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, a development indirectly attributed to Turkey’s influence, has further enhanced its regional standing. While Ankara denies direct involvement, the perception of Turkey as a dominant force shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics persists.

“They’ve wanted it for thousands of years, and he [Erdogan] got it,” Trump remarked, alluding to Turkey’s historical influence in the region.

Dalay highlights that Europe’s security order must account for interconnected zones of conflict, particularly the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East, where Turkey holds a pivotal position.

Evolving EU-Turkey Relations

Despite ongoing concerns over Turkey’s human rights record, recent European actions signal a thaw in relations. Arms embargoes imposed on Turkey have been gradually lifted, and key deals have been approved:

  • October 2024: Berlin authorized arms exports for modernizing Turkey’s submarines and frigates.
  • November 2024: Germany lifted its veto on the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Ankara.

Additionally, Turkey has renewed efforts to secure a more favorable customs union agreement with the EU, further strengthening economic ties.

A Strategic Necessity

As Europe navigates the challenges posed by Russia and other global threats, excluding Turkey from its security framework is no longer a viable option. Dalay advocates for a structured dialogue between the EU and NATO states, including Turkey, as well as non-EU European nations like Ukraine.

Looking Ahead

With the war in Ukraine entering its fourth year and uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under Trump, the EU faces a critical juncture. Strengthened security cooperation with Turkey, despite ongoing political tensions, may prove indispensable in addressing the complex threats facing Europe. The evolving dynamics highlight the potential for Turkey to play a pivotal role in shaping a new European security architecture.

 

 

 

 

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