Trump Doctrine 2.0: What It Means for the Middle East

Countries across Middle East are making moves and preparing for President Donald Trump’s incoming United States administration. Many of the region’s leaders were in power during the first Trump administration and will seek to achieve their goals by working with the White House over the next four years. It is essential to bridge relations because countries have come to expect flexibility and innovative policy decisions from Trump and his team.

On the other hand, some countries may also seek to exploit the changeover to push for major shifts in US policy.

 

Incoming Trump Administration and Foreign Relations

Leaders in the Middle East who recall the first administration will remember a time when personal relationships with Trump and flexibility to shift US policy quickly were hallmarks of the 2016-2020 era. These efforts resulted in the Abraham Accords peace deals between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain.

 

However, it also resulted in risk-taking by Ankara in Syria, which led to multiple crises between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Countries will look to see which type of Trump doctrine emerges right out of the gate when the new team takes office.

 

Relations with Israel

Trump has indicated that at the top of the list of priorities may be the winding down of the war in Gaza. This war began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which Hamas massacred more than 1,000 people and took 250 hostages. The group continues to hold 100 hostages. Trump has warned Hamas that it must release the hostages, including American hostages it holds, or “all hell will break out.”

 

Israel perceives the incoming administration as a close and supportive partner. There will be expectations that any criticism that emanated from the Biden team, or any slowdowns in munitions deliveries for Israel, will now end. Ostensibly, this will give Israel more flexibility to operate on multiple fronts, such as against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen or to pressure Hezbollah to adhere to a ceasefire, which expires in late January. In the West Bank, increasing terror attacks by groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad risk escalating into a wider conflict.

 

It’s possible that under a new Trump administration, Israel will feel more free rein to clamp down on threats in the West Bank. It’s not clear how that will play out with the Palestinian Authority, whose security forces have been backed and trained by the US over the last decades. The PA, supported by other friends of the US, such as Jordan and key Gulf states, would likely want the Trump administration to help it remain intact over the next several years. The PA’s aging leader, Mahmoud Abbas, will need to find a successor and guarantee stability if things are to remain stable in the West Bank.

 

The Incoming Administration and the Middle East

The Kingdom of Jordan angled for support from the first Trump administration early on. King Abdullah II traveled to Washington soon after Trump’s inauguration in 2017 to be the first Middle Eastern leader to meet with Trump. In 2025, the Kingdom once again finds itself at a crossroads. A new government in Syria has left Jordan wondering if stability will prevail in Damascus or if winds of change will threaten Amman. What that means is that Jordan continues to host large numbers of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime. Jordan has historically backed the Syrian rebels, groups who now share power in Damascus. Amman will want to see its friends in southern Syria play a greater role in Damascus. At the same time, Jordan hosts US forces. In January 2024, the Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah killed three Americans in Jordan using a drone flown from Iraq. It’s worth recalling that Trump ordered the drone strike that killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in January 2020. Muhandis was in the same car as IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, who was the main target and was also killed.

 

Lebanon and Syria are two countries in the region with new leadership awaiting the new administration. The outgoing Biden administration has sought to engage with the new leadership in Damascus. Trump’s team will need to thread a complex needle in Syria. On the one hand, Damascus will likely want to showcase itself as a potential partner for the US. Ahmed Shara’a, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who came to power in Damascus on December 8, had previously sought outreach to the US when he was running Idlib in northwest Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham likely saw the former Trump administration’s team, including James Jeffrey, Special Representative for Syria Engagement, as a positive force. He will want to engage with Washington increasingly.

How about Turkey?

In eastern Syria, the Trump administration will inherit the anti-ISIS mission that it sought to roll back in 2019. This will leave the Syrian Democratic Forces, who have been backed by the US to fight ISIS, in a difficult spot. They will hope that the new Trump team will want to continue to play a role in eastern Syria. If not, they know they may face a new Turkish invasion and a difficult time coming to an agreement with the new rulers in Damascus.

 

In Lebanon, the new president, Joseph Aoun, who was formerly a military commander, is seeking to portray himself as a friend of the West who is willing to take away weapons from Hezbollah. He’s paying lip service to a mission that the Lebanese government has never been able to accomplish in the past. He is hoping to receive increased support for Washington. The question is whether he can actually achieve any fundamental changes in Lebanon compared to past administrations.

 

Other regional leaders, such as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, are familiar with Trump. Both saw the first administration in a positive light. However, both sought to exploit the first administration’s policies by taking risks. Egypt, for instance, has played a role in eastern Libya. Turkey also played an increased role in Libya, signing a maritime deal with the leaders in western Libya, and becoming increasingly aggressive against Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara’s policies led to several crises during the first Trump administration, including the detention of an American pastor and two Turkish incursions into Syria. It remains to be seen whether Erdogan and Sisi will shift their policies now or see a new administration as a green light to operate more freely in their respective spheres.

 

In Iran and Iraq, there will be preparations for a new administration that is willing to increase sanctions on Iran. Sanctions against Iran will affect Iraq as well because Iraq has been closely aligned with Iran in recent years. US forces are still based in Iraq, including in the autonomous Kurdistan Region. The Kurdistan Region will want increased US support. Baghdad may feel it has a window to balance its ties with Iran and the US by getting something from both.

 

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a Senior Middle East Analyst for The Jerusalem Post. Seth is now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.