Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was swift to extend his congratulations to Donald Trump following his election victory, emphasizing his readiness to engage in renewed cooperation with the former U.S. leader.
“Donald Trump is a man who acts with his instincts, and Erdoğan is too,” stated Hüseyin Bağcı, a professor specializing in international relations at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.
“They are not intellectuals as we used to have, big political leaders after World War II. They are tradespeople. They are very pragmatic ones, and they are political animals. In this sense, they like transactional policies, not value-based policies.”
Focus on Syria
Erdoğan is anticipated to prioritize efforts to secure the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. American forces have been providing support to the Kurdish militia YPG, which plays a key role in combating the Islamic State but is viewed by Ankara as an extension of the PKK, a group responsible for a longstanding insurgency in Turkey.
During Trump’s initial term in office, he vowed to remove U.S. forces from Syria, a move that encountered significant opposition from within his administration. However, as commentator Sezin Öney from the independent Politikyol news portal highlighted, current dynamics in Syria may complicate such a withdrawal.
“Not to have the ISIS resurgence again or this HTS presenting a threat to the United States, the Trump administration would be interested in protecting the YPG and the Kurds, their alliance with the Kurds,” said Öney. “We already have the (U.S.) vice president, JD Vance, pointing out the ISIS resurgence.”
Regional Dynamics: Israel and Iran
The recent truce between Hamas and Israel could alleviate some tensions in Erdoğan’s relationship with Trump, given Erdoğan’s vocal support for Hamas. Concurrently, both the U.S. and Turkey share apprehensions about Iran’s growing regional influence, which could provide a foundation for bilateral cooperation.
“Trump administration is coming in with a desire to stabilize relations with Turkey,” commented Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an expert from the Brookings Institution. She also noted that a closer personal relationship between Erdoğan and Trump is likely, which could contrast with the dynamics observed during the Biden administration. However, she warned this does not guarantee Turkey achieving all its policy goals.
Fighter Jet Sales and Ukraine Diplomacy
Another key issue on Erdoğan’s agenda is the potential removal of Congressional restrictions on advanced fighter jet sales to Turkey. Analysts suggest that Turkey’s strategic ties with both Russia and Ukraine position it as a valuable intermediary in any Trump-led initiatives to negotiate a resolution to the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
“If Trump is pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, in this case, Turkey could be very helpful as a potential mediator,” remarked Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara office. Yet, he cautioned that developments in Syria could pose an early test to U.S.-Turkey relations.
Economic Concerns
Economic challenges loom large over Ankara’s foreign policy calculations. Trump’s previous presidency saw significant friction with Erdoğan, particularly when Trump threatened severe economic repercussions over Turkish plans to target U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. This pressure contributed to a steep depreciation of the Turkish lira.
With Turkey’s economic situation now more fragile, experts suggest Erdoğan may need to adopt a more measured approach in his interactions with the Trump administration to safeguard his country’s financial stability.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.
Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/