Tremors Shake Turkish President Erdogan’s Future, Will He  Postpone Elections?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political future stands bleak for the first time in 20 years as he faces major challenges following the earthquakes that rocked the country last Monday, argues Saumya Joshi.

 

The horrific natural disaster has become a new challenge for Turkish President Erdogan’s election plans. He must now prove that he is a leader who can get things done and mobilize the state effectively to provide relief to the earthquake survivors and rebuild their homes and their lives, adds the author.

Betting that Erdogan’s corrupt and sclerotic regime can’t pull off such a feat, the opposition is now concerned that he will maneuver to postpone elections.

The earthquake led to mass devastation in south-eastern Turkey and a part of Syria with the current death toll standing at 34,000, reported CNN. The earthquake has left a huge but unknown number of persons missing and tens of thousands wounded.

 

Erdogan’s bid to mend his political future

The horrific natural disaster has become a new challenge for Turkish President Erdogan’s election plans. He must now prove that he is a leader who can get things done and mobilize the state effectively to provide relief to the earthquake survivors and rebuild their homes and their lives.

 

 

“Such things always happened. It’s part of destiny’s plan,” said President Erdogan in order to calm the victims.

He not only promised immediate monetary aid to each homeless family but also said that within a year, the Housing Ministry would build new homes for everyone who became homeless from the earthquake. The Turkish President also acknowledged the lapse in the response of the rescue team to the victims and announced that “those responsible for the failures will be called to account.”  Indeed,  Erdogan immediately authorized a TL100 billion (ca 45.5 bn)   cash aid to quake victims.

 

However, it is worth noting that many Turks had grown angry with the government after the destructive earthquake of 1999 (which killed about 17,000 people), which anger resulted in the-then ruling coalition being wiped off from the political landscape to be replaced with AKP and CHP, the current lead actors.

After the 1999 tremor,  legislation was formulated that all new buildings must comply with strict seismic building codes. However, the magnitude of the devastation has exposed the truth that many contractors had been using inferior materials to construct unsafe buildings, ignoring the relevant specifications.

 

Further, Erdogan’s government has announced that it would take action against individuals who have been engaged in looting and other criminal activities in the region affected by the earthquakes. Apart from that, there have been 113 arrest warrants which are issued in connection with the construction of buildings that collapsed, including contractors and architects, and 12 persons are already in custody, as per local media reports. These actions have been understood as “a desperate attempt”, argued several Turkish people.

 

AKP’s President Erdogan’s promise that “We’ll get it done in a year”, referring to rebuilding destroyed homes in  the earthquake zone, tipped off  DP leader Gültekin Uysal who shared in his social media account:

“What are we  to understand from Erdogan’s plea to ‘give me a year’?  It is probably to combine the 18 June 2023 election with local elections (scheduled for March 2024), on the grounds that ‘voter registries could not be prepared due to actual impossibility’ by the High Election  Council. Because  he knows all the populist fiction he prepared  to win  the election has gone with the wind!”

 

PATurkey  is following this debate carefully, as pundits and legal scholars argue back and forth whether Erdogan has the authority to postpone elections.

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.