Not really.
I guess reading Biden’s comments overnight, comparing the current crisis to the Cuban missile crisis, one might get pretty freaked out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63167947
First things first, I don’t think much has changed in terms of the actual risks over the past few days. I would share the view that the current crisis is the biggest global security event since the Cuban missile crisis, but the risk factors have not actually changed for weeks – Putin has been nuclear sabre rattling for weeks/months.
But Biden’s words were incredibly well calibrated – the WH will have made sure every word was thought thru before delivery. Lots of different audiences were being targeted.
Allies and the world – the WH recognises how serious a situation we are all in. It takes the threats seriously, and is absolutely focused on them. These are words of reassurance for all that everything is being done to ensure a nuclear accident does not happen.
Biden then spoke about escalation risks – this was meant for Putin. The underlying message here was if you go nuclear in Ukraine, we escalate, and we are in an escalation cycle, so don’t do it. This is like the US bad cop routine.
Ukraine Counter-Attack Will Have Daunting Consequences for Turkey
Then the hint of compromise, the good cop bit of it, where Biden hints of trying to think of off-ramps for Putin. Noting how difficult it is, and its hard to see any – Biden does not want to put anything out there which would weaken the Ukrainian position. But there is a hint of talks/compromises. That’s positive. But it also came with a big new package of military support for Ukraine, and four more HIMARS this week. The US message is we are going to continue to arm Ukraine, and the longer this goes on the weaker Russia ends so back off and talk now. Message still to Putin is get out of Ukraine, at least to Feb 23 settings and lets talk. But you have to go back to Feb 23 settings, and if you don’t this ends badly for you – loss of Crimea, rest of Donbas, and back home, risks to Russia itself.
So net net in all this, don’t panic. Cool heads in the WH. They are winning. But they are still willing to talk to Putin, and I think are sending exactly the right messages to Putin. He will use nukes if he thinks there are no escalation risks. The US just spelled out that they will escalate if Putin uses nukes. So I think this suggests less risk now of a mistake as Biden has been crystal clear with Putin as to the consequences if Putin goes down the nuke route.
And Putin won’t use nukes in my view because:
- a) It does not really work on the battlefield – causes more headaches. Tactical nukes breach a hole in the oppositions defences, but then you need enough conventional forces to take advantage of that – to break out – and Russia does not have spare forces.
- b) It isolates Russia from global south, and China will be well annoyed – to the point I think of actually wanting to get rid of Putin;
- c) It risks a cycle of escalation which Putin might not be able to control – the US, at the least, would hit Russian forces in Ukraine, conventionally, and deal a devastating blow there.
- d) It encourages nuclear proliferation – everyone will feel they need them after this, Turkey, Saudi, et al. And Russia has worked against proliferation, e.g,. the Iran deal, so why would it want I undermine this.
- e) Risks of contamination of friendly areas – think Chernobyl. What’s the point taking and annexing territory of nuclear use then puts them beyond use for years.
- f) It would be an acceptance of conventional defeat – imagine, Ukraine beat Russia in a conventional war. What kind of superpower then is Russia? So use of nuclear weapons by Russia is actually a sign of weakness, of desperation.
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