Investigations against CHP mayors and the subsequent arrest of Zafer Party Chairman Ümit Özdağ are interpreted as the government’s increasing pressure on the opposition. The debate centers on where politics in Turkey is evolving and what opposition parties, especially the CHP, can do against it. Turkey started the new week with a succession of investigations and arrests.
Following the arrest of Rıza Akpolat, the CHP mayor of Beşiktaş last week, this week Cem Aydın, the head of the CHP’s Youth Branch, was summoned to testify due to an investigation against him, and new investigations were opened against Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. Ahmet Özer, the CHP mayor of Esenyurt, has also been detained since October.
Zafer Party Chairman Ümit Özdağ was arrested last night by the court to which he was referred on charges of “inciting the public to hatred and hostility”. On January 19, Özdağ was investigated for “insulting the President” in a speech he made in Antalya and was detained at a restaurant in Ankara.
The prosecutor’s office later expanded the investigation and added some of Özdağ’s posts on Syria policy and refugees to the file and brought a second charge of ‘inciting hatred and hostility among the public’.
Will the government increase its pressure further?
After coming second in the March 31 local elections, the government has been trying to put pressure on the opposition with investigations on the one hand, while on the other hand trying to limit their influence by transferring deputies and trying to put CHP municipalities in financial difficulties.
But why have the ties between the government and the opposition become so tense when months ago there were talks on “normalization” in politics, and what could the AKP be aiming for with these moves?
Political scientist Hatem Ete, founder of PanoramaTR Research, argues that the government pursued a policy of slowing down the calendar and spreading the process over time due to the defeat in the local elections and the magnitude of the economic crisis from the local elections until the end of 2024. Yet, since December, it has turned to a new strategy.
Stating that two simultaneous developments at the end of the year led to the government’s recovery, Ete says that the most important of these developments was the regime change in Syria and notes the following:
“This regime change led the government to gain psychological self-confidence and the opportunity to become a powerful actor in both regional and global geopolitics. In relation to this, it also led to an increase in the perception of success among both religious conservatives and the nationalist right-wing. All this led to Erdoğan gaining dynamism and revitalization.”
Ete says that with this momentum, Erdoğan achieved a vote increase in the range of 3-5 percent. Ete points out that this new situation has also changed Erdoğan’s view of the İmralı process initiated by MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli and reduced his reservations about the project, and points out that these two dynamics have created the perception that the government has recovered. Ete explains the impact of this on the recent developments as follows:
“It is possible to see the recent pressure on the opposition as a natural consequence of these dynamics. Erdoğan, now that he can see the way ahead, has started to project to the public the feeling that he can run again in the upcoming elections. On the one hand, he sees that his own path is opening up and he is taking steps towards this. At the same time, in order to increase this possibility, he is putting pressure on the opposition to make the public feel that the opposition is not an alternative.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had also instructed Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan to “shake up” CHP municipalities due to their Social Security Institution (SSI) debts. In this context, the Social Security Institution debts or expenditures of CHP municipalities are frequently covered by the pro-government media.
Reminding that the 2023 general election is a turning point and that the situation is expected to get much worse for the opposition after its loss, Associate Professor Can Kakışım, General Director of IdeaPolitik Institute for Political Research and Thought, says that he expects the government to increase its pressure even more from now on:
“I don’t find what is happening surprising. Erdoğan is trying to turn Turkey into Putin’s Russia. In other words, he wants a system in which he himself will design and determine his opponents and eliminate candidates who might pose a danger to him. It is possible to see all his steps within the framework of this goal.”
According to Kakışım, the election of Donald Trump as president in the US has also played a role in this process, and the political tradition along Trump’s line argues that “democracy is not so necessary” for countries like Turkey and is not even bothered by authoritarian regimes. “The election of a leader like Trump seems to have opened a little more space for Erdoğan,” Kakışım says.
What can the opposition do?
What can the opposition parties, particularly the CHP, do in light of the recent succession of investigations and detentions? According to Kakışım, despite the pressure from the government, there is still a serious and vibrant social opposition and it is not possible to completely contain it through force.
Kakışım says that the CHP needs to mobilize the social opposition and explain to the parties that this issue is not only about the CHP but also about the democratization of Turkey as a whole: “There is currently an operation to intimidate all opponents, left or right, regardless of party. This is the elimination of the conditions for democracy and politics in Turkey. Therefore, there should be a total reaction to this. The CHP should be able to organize this total reaction.”
On the other hand, solidarity between some opposition parties has increased due to the successive detentions and arrests. CHP Chairman Özel went to the courthouse to follow the judicial process regarding Ümit Özdağ on the spot, while IYI Party Chairman Müsavat Dervişoğlu, who was threatened by the Grey Wolves in the past days, was at the Çağlayan Courthouse yesterday for support.
Dervişoğlu’s remarks were remarkable, suggesting new possibilities for the opposition: “Everyone should know well that nationalists, republicans, Atatürkists, democrats, patriots, patriots will no longer compete; let everyone witness that they will unite. You will see that this course of events will lead to good things and none of the nightmare scenarios they want to fictionalize will come true.”
Özel also supported Dervişoğlu’s statement, saying that they “saw Erdoğan’s game” and said, “The day is the day to talk about unity, not separation. It is a day to stand side by side, arm in arm, not to fall apart. The day is the day to take steps together to save this nation from those who are dragging this nation down.”
“CHP is the actor that will frustrate the government’s moves” The CHP, which came first in the March 31 local elections but has failed to maintain this position in recent polls, is expected to announce its road map against the latest pressures in a short time. Hatem Ete reminds that the CHP came to the public agenda with internal debates rather than new political moves after the statute convention and points to who will be the presidential candidate and the rivalry between former President Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the new administration as two important factors that sparked these debates.
Ete says that this debate is reflected in the public opinion as distrust of the CHP and dissatisfaction with its policies: “I think that the government’s recent pressure on the CHP is not independent from the debates within the CHP. As Erdoğan continues to make moves against the CHP because he feels that things are not going well in the CHP, even if the developments are triggered by Erdoğan, they make much more noise than they should, with many different wings within the CHP embracing this with different approaches. In other words, every move Erdoğan makes leads to deepening tensions within the CHP.”
From time to time, Kılıçdaroğlu publicly criticizes the party leadership with some statements on his social media account.
On the other hand, Ete says that the CHP is exaggerating the government’s moves against it much more than it deserves unless it comes up with a new policy itself, adding, “The CHP is looking for a way to turn this into a final agenda and to ensure its internal recovery through a fight with the government.”
Ete shares the opinion that the CHP will be the actor that will be harmed as a result of all these developments, saying: “Yes, Erdoğan has increased his moves against the CHP, but the CHP is the actor that will frustrate these moves. As long as it does not produce a new politics, as long as it does not turn its face towards an alternative politics and internal unity within the party, it appears as an open wound that can be constantly dug and scratched by external actors, especially the government. A strong CHP, a CHP that has ensured its internal coherence and integrity will have a much higher capacity to respond to the government’s moves.”
VoA Türkçe/ Gülsen Solaker
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