The latest CPI print came out at 80%, with the consensus expecting even higher figures in the months to come.
- In July monthly trade deficit soared to $10 bn.
- A buoyant tourism season and domestic spending is keeping the economy together, but odds have it that Turkey won’t survive the winter for five reasons.
- First, the external deficit is becoming impossible to finance.
- Second, the global backdrop is turning severely against fragile EM like Turkey.
- Third, inflation is out of control, predicted to breach three digits in early 2023.
- Forth, there is monster Covid-19 wave, which the government refuses to deal with.
- Finally, lower growth and Covid-19 related work stoppages will raise unemployment by 5 pcp.
- Turkey will most likely impose capital controls, suffer from deepening poverty resulting in mass social unrest as well as a rebellion against the Erdogan administration.
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