March Consumer Confidence Index at 2,5 year peak- heavenly

Turkey Statistical Institute (TURSTAT) added one more to its controversial data stream this morning.

Accordingly, the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index increased by 2.5 percent in March to 86.7 compared to the previous month’s 84.5 in February.

Thus, the consumer confidence index has risen for the 5th month in a row since November last year marking the peak only after when the Index stood at 88.2 points before the start of the August 2018 currency crisis.

The logic behind the data could be that the stability in the exchange rate and the effect of TL’s appreciation between November and March; right before the shocking central bank presidency change have benefited consumer confidence. It seems however that consumers were not affected by the increase in interest rates in the same period, which does not seem possible.

On the other hand, since Friday night the Turkish economic landscape have changed profoundly.  President Erdogan’s way of exercising his authority in the economic management processes creates severe volatility and uncertainty.  Hence, it does not take a genius to forecast that consumer confidence will slide starting from April. Of course, if TURKSTAT wants to reflect this in its statements.

Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, March 2021

Financial situation of household index:  which was 66.3 in February increased by 1.4% to 67.3 in March.

Financial situation expectation index:  which was 84.5 in February increased by 4.0% to 87.9 in March.

General economic situation expectation index: which was 91.7 in February increased by 2.5% to 94.1 in March.

Assessment on spending money on durable goods index:  which was 95.5 in February increased by 2.0% to 97.4 in March.