Macro Thoughts: May 2022 – Shiny Happy People

This time we’ll keep this piece short and sweet. Last month we opined that «The market’s collective consciousness is likely to concentrate on the stag part of stagflation in the coming days. While the inflation part has become common knowledge by now, the growth slowdown is not. But we expect this to change as new data comes in.» Thus, markets sold off hard once more.

We think it is very likely that developed market economies, especially, are seeing a slow down which will keep the issue of recession on the market’s top agenda. From a market perspective, it is not even that important whether an eventual recession follows or not.

Having said that pessimism and positioning suggest a trade-able bounce is about to start.

Our view remains that it will take a much bigger sell off for the Fed to throw in the towel. Thus, following a potential tradable counter trend rally into 3Q which is unlikely to exceed 4400-4500 levels on the S&P500, is likely to be followed by another major downleg to see new lows, in our view.


Turkish Real Estate: Worst Time to Buy!


Our conviction remains for inflation assets, especially precious metals, as well as EM over DM and value over growth. Our favorite sector remains mining.

In line with our views, Turkish equities have performed relatively well but this may not continue during what we expect a more mean reversion type counter trend move in the coming weeks. Things like technology and especially China technology are likely to outperform, in our view.


Yapi Kredi (Koc Bank) Invest strategy, chief strategist Murat Berk

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.