Macro Snapshot: Foreign Trade Statistics

Foreign trade deficit decreased by 33.2% YoY to US3.1bn in April and decreased by 3.2% MoM to USD46.4bn in 12-month annulized basis (2020: USD49.9bn).

SA foreign trade figures point to a monthly deficit of USD2.7bn, down by 34.3% MoM.

Exports at USD18.8bn, up by 109.2% YoY in April and at USD186.7bn in last 12-month period, up by 5.5% MoM (2020: USD:170bn).

Capital, intermediate and consumption goods recorded 114.6%, 94.4% and 132.3% of yearly increases, respectively.

The share of the European countries in Turkey’s exports is around 58.8% in April (2013-2020 Average: 54.4%).

Total imports increased by 61.1% YoY to USD21.8bn in April and 12- month annualized figure increased by 3.7% MoM to USD233.1bn in April (2020: USD219.5bn).

Capital, intermediate and consumption goods increased by 35.4%, 65.9% and 67.7% YoY,

12-month energy imports decreased by 4.8% MoM to USD29.5bn (2020: USD28.9bn) and gold imports decreased by 2.8% MoM to USD23.1bn (2020: USD25.2bn). Accordingly, total imports excluding energy and gold increased by 6.1% to USD180.5bn (2020: USD165.4bn).

Turkey’s exports to Germany (which has the highest share in Turkey’s exports with 9.1%)
increased by 28.3% YoY in 4M21.

Exports-to-imports ratio was 86% in April (2013-2020 Average: 73%).

With the announced trade deficit figure and foreign visitors data, we estimate April C/A deficit could be around USD2.2bn, according to our first calculations which could drive 12-month rolling C/A decifit from USD36.2bn in March to USD33.1bn in April.


Source: Y. F. Securities Research