Macro Snapshot: Foreign Trade Statistics

Foreign trade deficit decreased by 47.5% YoY to US2.5bn in September (Aug.21: USD-4.3bn, Sep.20: USD-4.9bn) and decreased by 4.9% MoM to USD44.4bn in 12-month annulized basis (Prior: USD-46.7, 2020: USD49.9bn).

SA foreign trade figures point to a monthly deficit of USD3.1bn, down by 22.2% MoM.

Exports at USD20.8bn, up by 30% YoY in September and at USD212.2bn in last 12-month
period, up by 2.3% MoM (Prior: USD207.4bn, 2020: USD:169.6bn).

Capital, intermediate and consumption goods recorded 16.6%, 52.4% and 12.1% of yearly
increases, respectively.

The share of the European countries in Turkey’s exports is around 55% in September (2013- 2020 Average: 54.4%).

Total imports increased by 11.9% YoY to USD23.3bn in September and 12-month annualized figure increased by 1% MoM to USD256.5bn in September (Prior: USD254.1bn, 2020: USD219.5bn).

Capital and intermediate goods recorded 0.2% and 16.5% of yearly increases whereas consumption goods decreased by 4.9% YoY.

12-month energy imports increased by 4.7% MoM to USD38.9bn (Prior: USD37.1bn, 2020: USD28.9bn) whereas gold imports decreased by 21.1% MoM to USD11.5bn (Prior: USD14.6bn, 2020: USD25.2bn). Accordingly, total imports excluding energy and gold increased by 1.9% MoM to USD206.1bn (Prior: USD202.4bn, 2020: USD165.4bn).

Turkey’s exports to Germany (which has the highest share in Turkey’s exports with 8.8%)
increased by 25% YoY in 9M21.

Exports-to-imports ratio was 89.1% in September (2013-2020 Average: 73%).

According to our first calculation under the light of the announced trade deficit figure, C/A could give around USD705mn of surplus which could drive 12-month rolling C/A decifit from USD23bn in August to USD20bn in September.


Y. F. Securities Research