Macro Snapshot: Foreign Trade Statistics

Foreign trade deficit decreased by 32.4% YoY to US4.3bn in August and decreased by 4.2% MoM to USD46.6bn in 12-month annulized basis (Prior: USD-48.7, 2020: USD49.9bn).

SA foreign trade figures point to a monthly deficit of USD4.1bn, up by 2.7% MoM.

Exports at USD18.9bn, up by 51.9% YoY in August and at USD207.4bn in last 12-month
period, up by 3.2% MoM (Prior: USD201bn, 2020: USD:169.6bn).

Capital, intermediate and consumption goods recorded 55.3%, 65.8% and 35.8% of yearly increases, respectively.

The share of the European countries in Turkey’s exports is around 55.1% in August (2013-
2020 Average: 54.4%).

Total imports increased by 23.6% YoY to USD23.2bn in August and 12-month annualized figure increased by 1.8% MoM to USD254.1bn in August (Prior: USD249.6bn, 2020: USD219.5bn).

Capital, intermediate and consumption goods recorded 14.5%, 27.6% and 5.1% of yearly
increases, respectively.

12-month energy imports increased by 6.4% MoM to USD37.1bn (Prior: USD34.9bn, 2020: USD28.9bn) whereas gold imports decreased by 20.1% MoM to USD14.6bn (Prior:
USD18.3bn, 2020: USD25.2bn). Accordingly, total imports excluding energy and gold increased by 3% MoM to USD202.4bn (Prior: USD196.5bn, 2020: USD165.4bn).

Turkey’s exports to Germany (which has the highest share in Turkey’s exports with 8.8%)
increased by 27.1% YoY in 8M21.

Exports-to-imports ratio was 81.6% in July (2013-2020 Average: 73%).

With the announced trade deficit figure and foreign visitors data, we estimate August C/A deficit could be around USD402mn, according to our first calculations which could
drive 12-month rolling C/A decifit from USD27.8bn in July to USD24bn in August.



Y.F. Securities Research