P.A. Turkey

Macro Snapshot: CUR, RSCI and Sectoral Confidence Indices

In November, manufacturing CUR, RSCI and sectoral confidence (except service sector) indices recorded increases.

 

SA CUR increased by 0.1pps 77.6% in November. 3-month average figure was 77.6% (4Q20: 75.2%, 3Q21: 77%, Historical Average: 76%).

In yearly comparison, CUR of non- durable and intermediate goods recorded increases for the 8-month in a row whereas CUR of durable and capital goods decreased fort he
first time after 7 months.

17 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted positive annual changes. The
highest increases were seen on CURs of beverages, other manufacturing and wearing apperal whereas the highest YoY decreases were seen on CURs of motor vehicles, electrical equipment and computer-electronics.

SA RSCI increased by 0.6% to 112 and continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 16th month in a row. 3-month average figure was 112.2 in November (4Q20: 109.2,
3Q21: 112.5, Historical Average: 103.5).

Indices for orders and stocks increased whereas investment and general situation recorded decreases. This was the 4th monthly drop in a row on the general situation index. Only investment index continued to remain the optimistic area for the 15th month in a row, despite the sharp monthly drop.

Optimistic outlook continues. All sub-indices for the Outlook for next 3 months recorded monthly increases.

Service sector confidence index (119.4) recorded a monthly drop by 0.9% after 5 months of increases. On the other hand, service sector confidence index continued to stay
at the optimistic area for the 11th consecutive months.

In November, demand and business situation indices decreased 5 months later whereas
the employment index increased for the 3rd month in a row. All sub- indices for the current outlook continued to stay at the optimistic area.

Despite all three indices on the Outlook continued to remain above the optimistic area since November 2020, Outlook for next 3 months on employment index decreased slightly in monthly basis.

Retail-trade sector confidence recorded the 6th monthly increase (+0.8%) in a row and continued to stay above of 100 (121.9) for the 13th month in a row.

Volume of stocks increased in a higher pace than the the drop of business activity and sales.

All expectations remained at optimistic side for the 13th month in a row. Only the the index of orders to suppliers recorded monhly drop after 5-month long upward trend.

Construction sector confidence index (93.6) recorded a monthly increase (+0.9%), but continued to stay at the pessimistic area.

Current order books reached to optimistic area again after 8 months.

Employment and price expectation indices continued to stay above of critical value of 100 and both indice recorded monthly increases. Prices expectation recorded the highest monthly increase in last 5 months.

 

Y. F. Securities Research