July polls reveal opposition inching ahead of AKP-MHP

According to independent news site Haber3, nine polls published in July  reveal the main opposition of CHP-IYIP moving ahead of President  Erdogan’s AKP MHP alliance.  In three August polls, AKP was shown to be losing further favor with the electorate.  Center-right IYIP chaired by Mrs Meral Aksener is the rising star of the opposition, which according to August ORC poll garners 22% support.  Erdogan ally MHP is at 7%, and in danger of disqualifying from the next parliament.  The pro-Kurdish Rights Party, HDP is scoring 9.8% in July polls, comfortably above the 7% national qualification hurdle.


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Below are the average of nine polls published in July—in percentages


AKP:  31,3

CHP: 26,8

İYİP: 14,3

HDP: 9,8

MHP: 7

Zafer Party anti-immigrant:  2,8

DEVA Party (of Ali Babacan:  2,3

BTP:  1,8

GELECEK Party (of Ahmet Davutoglu):  1,4

Yeniden Refah Party–Islamist: 1,4

Saadet Partisi-Islamist: 1


The main opposition alliance of CHP-IYIP outmatch governing AKP-MHP by 41.1% vs 38.3%. If SAADET, DEVA and Gelecek choose to run under the same ticket with CHP-IYIP, the opposition gains and eight point advantage, potentially securing a simple majority (301 seats) in the 600 seat Grand Assembly. HDP is certain to vote in many issues with opposition, such as the budget, human rights legislation and nationalization of toll roads and tunnels, granting  the opposition a huge margin against AKP-MHP.


In August, Yoneylem, ORC (Partially) and Avrasya Research revealed their poll results this far.  In all three, main opposition party CHP is reported as a head or neck to neck with governing AKP.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.