UPDATE (CPI print today) Istanbul inflation exceeds 20 percent

Turkstat is predicted to report Turkish CPI soaring to 20.35%, up from 19.58% in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. All but one of 20 economists predicted an acceleration. Headline prices haven’t jumped by more than 20% since January 2019.


WATCH:  A Uniquely Turkish Disease: High Chronic Inflation


Surveys conducted by three separate Turkish news agencies, too, predict CPI rising over 20% per annum.  This is not the end of bad news.  As President Erdogan insists on further rate cuts, Turkey’s currency is weakening steadily, testing 9.60 vs USD Wednesday morning. Reinforced with the global energy shock, and a drought now entering its second year, currency weakness will “pass through” to inflation very quickly. Two economists—who preferred to remain anonymous—PATurkey interviewed, predicted unless fiscal and monetary policies are tightened immediately, headline inflation could reach 25% by mid-2022.


WATCH:  How Bad is Fed Taper for Turkish Assets?


Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Istanbul Cost of Living Index (consumer prices) increased by 3.29% on monthly basis elevating the annual level to 20.76% – the highest of the past nine years.

Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Istanbul PPI increased by 2.76% on monthly basis in October carrying the the annual increase to 29.12%.

On monthly terms the price increases for the food sector was 4.22% (20.3% annually), 3.55% in cultural education and entertainment expenditures, 3.25% in housing expenditures, 2.62% in household goods expenditures, 2.41% in clothing expenditures, 1.14% in transportation and communications expenditures, 0.24% in health and personal care expenditures and 0.04% in the other expenditures group.

6.5% increase in energy materials group

In October, wholesale prices increased by 6.50% in the mines group, 6.49% in the fuel and energy materials group, 4.16% in the foodstuffs group, 2.32% in the construction materials group, 1.65% in the chemicals group, 0.97% in the mensucat group, and decreased by 1.64% in the raw materials group.

The official October inflation figures will be announced on October 3rd, as the average expectation is at 2.5% which will carry the annual CPI inflation to 20.01% from 19.58% reported in september.

The central bank of Turkey had re-revised its end of year CPI inflation expectation to 18.84% from 14.1% last week with the release of its last Inflation Report of the year.