German Economic Institutes to cut 2021 GDP growth forecast

Germany’s economic institutes will cut their joint 2021 growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 3.7% from 4.7% previously due to a longer than expected COVID-19 lockdown, two people familiar with the decision told Reuters on Wednesday.

The institutes, which are expected to release their joint growth forecast on Thursday, will lift their GDP growth estimate for 2022 to 3.9% from 2.7% previously as private consumption is expected to boost overall output, the sources added.

The institutes’ estimates form the basis for the government’s own growth forecast which the economy ministry will present later this month.

In January, the government said it expected gross domestic product to grow by 3% this year, following a drop of 4.9% in the previous year caused by the coronavirus.

The figures are the latest sign that the economy will need longer than initially thought to reach its pre-crisis level.

Export-oriented manufacturers are currently benefiting from higher demand from China and the United States, whereas the domestically focused services sector is suffering under extended curbs to contain a third wave of COVID-19 infections.