Erdoğan’s Push for Higher Birth Rates Faces Economic and Social Realities

For over a decade, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Turkish families to have more children, arguing that large families are essential for Turkey’s strength. His call began in 2008 when he declared that each family should have at least three children to sustain demographic growth. Since then, he has repeatedly linked declining birth rates to moral decay and societal decline, blaming feminism for undermining traditional family values.

In 2016, Erdoğan stirred controversy by stating that women who choose not to have children are “deficient” and “incomplete.” His administration has since implemented policies to reinforce conservative family structures. 2024 has been declared the “Year of the Family,” with financial incentives aimed at boosting birth rates. Additionally, the government has rolled back reproductive rights, restricted access to contraception, and framed LGBTQ+ communities as threats to traditional values.

A Declining Birth Rate Despite Policy Shifts

Despite Erdoğan’s push, Turkey’s birth rate continues to fall, reaching just 958,000 births in 2023—a record low. The country’s total fertility rate now stands at 1.51 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Economic hardship is a major factor. Soaring inflation, stagnant wages, and rising housing costs make child-rearing increasingly unaffordable. Many young people, particularly women, are prioritizing education and careers over early motherhood. Urbanization has also played a role, as families in cities tend to have fewer children than those in rural areas.

Restrictive Policies Have Not Reversed the Trend

The government’s restrictions on contraception have failed to boost birth rates. Turkey ranks poorly in contraceptive access compared to other European nations, limiting women’s control over family planning without increasing fertility rates.

Erdoğan portrays falling birth rates as a demographic crisis, but Turkey’s trends reflect global patterns seen in many high- and middle-income nations. Rather than enforcing childbirth through restrictive measures, policymakers could support reproductive rights, gender equality, and economic stability to empower individuals to make informed decisions about family size.

The Path Forward: Adaptation Over Resistance

A declining birth rate presents challenges, including an aging population and potential labor shortages, but these can be managed through:

  • Supporting older workers to remain in the workforce longer
  • Encouraging workforce participation, particularly among women
  • Investing in education and automation to boost productivity

Instead of resisting demographic change, adapting to new social and economic realities will be key to shaping Turkey’s future sustainably and equitably.