Economist (Prof) Ulusoy: If  dollar/TL does not stabilize, the entire economy could be disrupted

Economist Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy pointed out that the real danger is the volatility in the exchange rate rather than the level, adding that the inflation on the shelves is much higher than reported.

Despite the rise in inflation and the losses in the TL, the CBRT, which started the interest rate cuts requested by Erdoğan in September, continued its easing cycle with 200 basis points in October, beyond expectations.


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Erdogan said he had instructed the Foreign Ministry to declare the ambassadors of 10 countries “persona non grata”, who made a joint statement regarding imprisoned human rights activist Osman Kavala.

‘Currency volatility is doubly damaging to inflation on consumer goods’

Economist Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy drew attention to the connection between exchange rate and inflation on Halk TV: “We measure the inflation on consumer goods based by the dollar but believe me, volatility is twice as bad  according to our models.”

(Important:  cover chart doesn’t cover 2H2021)

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Expressing that this situation caused disruptions in the supply chain management, Ulusoy continued: “Exchange rate  and its volatility need to cool down. It would not be wrong to say that if we fail to achieve this, many fragile balances are going to be disrupted.”


Translation: Cem Cetinguc


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.