Early-early election talk in Ankara

Turkey’s economy has been stumbling lately, with inflation running high – in the double digits – and the lira losing value rapidly. This has compounded the effect of damaging domestic political polarisation and foreign policy gambles.


While regular national elections are not due before 2023, the possibility of early elections hangs in the air. Meanwhile, opinion polling suggests that both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP are behind their opposition challenges.



Rumors about AKP-MHP alliance contemplating snap election in 1H2022 is stoked by Erdogan’s deteriorating health, as well as a sudden decision to unroll a massive social spending package, the size of which may exceed $10 bn. Pro-government sources issued sources death threats against main opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (CHP) as some columnists began discussing whether CHP ought to be closed. The trial of Kurdish opposition party HDP  at the Constitutional Court for aiding and abetting terror outfit PKK  should be watched carefully to see whether the senior justices can be persuaded to accept a lawsuit against CHP, too.


If elections were to be held in 1H2022, the 6-party opposition alliance is set to win by a sweep.


Gokce Gokcen, 30, Vice President of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party, CHP, said that she is certain that the opposition led by the CHP will soon terminate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20 years-long rule, undermined by a deepening economic crisis, a series of foreign policy crises and political polarisation.


“The political debate in the country is now determined by the opposition because we see the real problems of people and they [the government] do not. Polls and our own observations show that we will come to power. We are certain of it,” Gokcen told BIRN.


WATCH:  Turkish Opposition is Marching to Power | Real Turkey


Recent polls support Gokcen’s claim. An average of recent polls conducted in September by Turkish Poll Tracker, put the opposition Nation Alliance, which consists of the social democratic CHP and the centre-right Good Party on 40.1 per cent, just ahead of Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, consisting of his ruling Justice and Development Party, AKP, and far-right Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, on 39.3 per cent.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.