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Commentary:  Turkey’s Slow-Motion Currency Crash

Atilla YeşiladaPosted on13 May, 2022

It is the time of the year, when Turkey has another currency crash. It happens biannually.

 

  • In “normal countries” currency crashes are at worst once-a-decade event, because policy-makers learn their lessons from this devastating calamity.

 

  • In Turkey, Einstein’s definition of stupidity prevails: Doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.

 

  • Why slow-motion? Because Central Bank is ordered to defend the currency at the expanse of wasting all of its FX assets.

 

  • Turkey has a rising external deficit, 70% inflation and a government which has no credibility.

 

  • Erdogan won’t raise rates, won’t be able to find external financing and his idea of fighting inflation is prosecuting anyone who dares raise prices.

 

  • Consequences: Currency controls, possible social unrest, recession and an end to Erdogan’s political career.

 

  • Watch out for our next currency crash video coming in October.

 

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TagsAtilla Yesilada videos currency currency crash current account deficit external debt inflation Real Turkey Channel videos Turkish economy

Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal. View all posts by Atilla Yeşilada

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