CHP/Kilicdaroglu gains popularity among Kurds at the expense of Erdogan

Two recent polls conducted in Turkey’s 16 Kurdish-majority provinces shows that voter support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in obvious decline.


According to the results of Socio-Political Field Research Centre, Erdoğan will get 20.5% of the votes in presidential elections set for 2023, while Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), will receive 45% in a possible two-candidate race.


WATCH:  Can The Opposition Rescue Turkish Economy?


Other potential opposition candidates, İstanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Ankara’s mayor Mansur Yavas, and Meral Aksener, the leader of the centre-right Good (İYİ) party, have 39.4%, 28.1% and 24.4% support respectively among voters of 16 Kurdish-majority provinces, if they run against Erdoğan.


The poll conducted by the Socio-Political Field Research Centre did not include a potential presidential candidate that could represent the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP).


The poll was carried out in the southeastern provinces of Diyarbakır, Mardin, Urfa, Van, Batman, Siirt, Şırnak, Hakkâri, Ağrı, Muş, Bingöl, Bitlis, Adıyaman, Kars, Dersim and Iğdır.


WATCH:  Meet the Person Who Can Beat Erdogan: Kemal Kilicdaroglu


A second poll by Metropoll agency in the same region conducted in August reveals AKP’s share of the national  among Kurds declined from  20% in March, to 10% in April. With pro-Kurdish Rights party HDP leading the field at 51.7% (vs 35% in March), CHP is now the third party with 12.8% of the Kurdish vote.


Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have for years enjoyed a high level of support particularly from conservative Kurdish voters in the southeastern provinces, while the CHP has had little popularity.


The AKP’s voter support has declined by 9.1%, falling from 25.5% to 16.4% according to the survey, while the CHP has increased its voter support almost two-fold to 12.3%.


Turkey will elect a new president and also new members of parliament in the coming elections. Kilicdaroglu, who is often named as the most likely candidate for an alliance formed by six opposition parties excluding, the HDP, would have to gain the basic majority of the popular vote in the first or second round of the presidential elections in order to end Erdogan’s 20-year rule.


Follow our  English language YouTube videos  @ REAL TURKEY:

And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng

Facebook:  Real Turkey Channel:


Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.