Ahval News:  Turkish economic statistics paint mixed picture after lira’s crash

Turkey’s central bank and statistics agency published data on Tuesday that painted a mixed picture of the economic repercussions of a crash in the lira’s value late last year.


Confidence in the industrial sector, retail and services climbed in January, the figures showed. Meanwhile, capacity usage among manufacturers and confidence in the construction industry fell.


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The Turkish lira has slid by 37 percent against the dollar since the start of September, when the central bank began cutting interest rates despite an uptick in inflation. The slump in the lira has raised concern for economic stability in the country and a possible recession. Turkey’s consumer price inflation rate surged to 36.1 percent in December, the highest level since 2002. The rate has almost doubled from the 19.3 percent reported for August.


Industrial confidence increased to 109.5 points this month from 106.1 in December and from 108.4 in November, the central bank said. Any figure above 100 points reflects optimism. Production and orders were expected to increase in the next three months, the bank said.


Meanwhile, capacity usage among manufacturers dropped to 77.6 percent this month from 78.7 percent in December and 78.1 percent in November, the central bank said.


In the retail sector, confidence increased to 124.4 points in January from 121.5 points in December, despite the jump in annual inflation. It had stood at 115.6 points in September, when the central bank began cutting interest rates. A similar trend was observed in the services industry, where sentiment improved to 120.2 this month from 118.8 in December, according to the data, published by the Turkish Statistical Institute. It had stood at 117.8 in September.


In the construction sector, confidence dipped to 85.5 points from 90 points in December. The January figure was the lowest since June.


On Friday, the statistical institute said consumer confidence improved to 73.2 in January from 68.9 in December. The December figure was the lowest since records began in 2012. Any figure below 100 reflects pessimism. Sentiment had stood at 79.7 in September.



Via Ahval News


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.