Video Commentary: Turkey is going to be the best performer in Emerging Markets
turkey gold medal
Real Turkey Channel presenter Atilla Yesilada lays out his bull case for Turkish bonds and equities in this video, as well as explaining what “strong TL” policy means for the exchange rate in Turkish context. He is less bullish than consensus about EM performance, but considers Turkish assets a “safe haven”, if USD reverses course and Fed refrains from rate cuts. Regarding Turkey, he argues that financial assets are still historically cheap and supported by “sane” fiscal and monetary policy. Surprisingly, he predicts Erdogan will not meddle with economic policy until 2028, when the next elections shall take place. War between Iran and US/Israel pumping up oil and gas prices (pun intended) is the main downside risk to his bullish scenario, but positive shocks are likely to trump the Iran risk. What are these upsides?
