Ulvi Saran: Turkey’s Revolving Door Justice: Why Mass Releases Fail to Curb Record Prison Populations

ISTANBUL – Despite the recent enactment of a new execution regulation that saw the release of 50,000 convicts, Turkey continues to grapple with one of the highest incarceration rates in the world. Analysts and legal experts warn that the country’s reliance on amnesty-like regulations is a failing strategy that undermines the rule of law without solving the underlying crisis of prison overcrowding.

The Statistics of a Crisis

As of late 2025, Turkey’s prison infrastructure—consisting of 403 facilities with a total capacity of 305,000—was housing 433,000 inmates prior to the recent releases. This places Turkey among the top 10 countries globally for prison population density.

With an incarceration rate of approximately 500 prisoners per 100,000 people, Turkey currently ranks 6th or 7th worldwide. However, experts argue that this “static” rank is actually artificially suppressed by Turkey’s unique legal mechanisms.

A “Virtual” Justice System?

Turkey’s legal framework employs several “diluting” tools that distinguish it from other high-incarceration nations:

• The “No-Stay” Threshold: Turkey leads the world with a nearly six-year execution threshold. In practice, this means individuals sentenced to up to six years can often bypass actual prison time through “check-in/check-out” procedures or nominal oversight.

• Massive Probation Pool: Beyond the 433,000 behind bars, an estimated 450,000 to 500,000 people are under supervised release or external execution regimes.

• Frequent Amnesties: Over the last century, Turkey has implemented approximately 45 to 55 amnesty-related regulations. Notably, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Turkey led the world in “mass releases,” freeing 103,000 inmates.

The “Counter-Factual” Reality: Ranking Second Globally

If Turkey’s unique “release valves”—such as mass amnesties and the high execution threshold—were neutralized to match international standards, its true incarceration rate would skyrocket.

Analytical models suggest that without these interventions, Turkey’s adjusted incarceration rate would climb to between 800 and 950 per 100,000 people. This would effectively place Turkey as the second most incarcerated nation on Earth, trailing only El Salvador.

The Rebound Effect

The constant cycle of overcrowding followed by mass release has created a “compensatory growth” dynamic. Much like a biological organism reacting to restriction, Turkey’s prison population tends to surge back to even higher levels shortly after every mass evacuation.

Legal scholars argue that until the logic of the sentencing system and the structural flow of the judiciary are radically questioned, the revolving door of Turkish justice will continue to spin, leaving both the public sense of justice and the prison system in a state of permanent crisis.

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