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Uganda Threatens to Cut Ties with Türkiye Within 30 Days

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Uganda’s Special Forces Commander Muhoozi Kainerugaba has issued a sharp warning to Türkiye, threatening to sever diplomatic relations within 30 days if ongoing disputes are not resolved. The remarks highlight rising tensions between the two countries, driven by political disagreements, economic friction, and regional geopolitical competition.

Uganda Issues Stark Warning

Uganda’s Special Forces Commander Muhoozi Kainerugaba said in a social media statement that Türkiye is at the center of ongoing tensions between the two countries.

He warned that unless the issues are resolved:

  • Uganda could cut all diplomatic ties with Türkiye within 30 days
  • Air links between the two countries could also be suspended

“The real problem is Türkiye,” Kainerugaba said, adding that Kampala had given Ankara time to address its concerns.

Somalia Remarks Escalate Tensions

Kainerugaba also referred to his past military experience in Somalia to criticize Türkiye’s regional role.

He said that between 2007 and 2011, Uganda operated in Mogadishu with support from the US, UK and France, claiming Türkiye only became active in the region later.

The comments added a historical and geopolitical dimension to the dispute.

Three Key Sources of Friction

Recent tensions between Uganda and Türkiye stem from three main issues:

1. The Fred Lumbuye Case

Ugandan dissident and YouTuber Fred Lumbuye, currently based in Türkiye, has become a major point of contention.

  • Uganda has repeatedly requested his extradition
  • Türkiye has declined, citing legal procedures and human rights considerations

Kampala views Ankara’s position as shielding a political opponent.

2. Railway Contract Dispute

A major infrastructure disagreement has also strained relations.

  • Uganda shifted away from a planned deal with Turkish firm Yapi Merkezi on a $2.2 billion railway project
  • Authorities cited financing delays, but the move has been seen as a setback for Turkish business interests

The decision has weakened what had been growing economic cooperation.

3. Regional Influence Rivalry

Türkiye’s expanding footprint in East Africa has raised concerns in Kampala.

  • Türkiye’s involvement in Somalia
  • Growing military ties with Ethiopia

have been interpreted by Uganda as encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence.

Diplomatic Chill, Not a Break — Yet

Despite the strong rhetoric, analysts say the situation has not yet reached a full diplomatic breakdown.

  • Trade between the two countries continues
  • Turkish companies remain active in Uganda

However, the relationship has clearly cooled compared to previous years.

Outlook: Critical 30-Day Window

Kainerugaba’s ultimatum puts pressure on both sides to manage the dispute quickly.

The coming weeks will be crucial for:

  • Diplomatic engagement
  • Efforts to de-escalate tensions

Failure to do so could lead to a deeper rupture in bilateral relations.

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Sources:  HalkTV, PA newsdesk

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