Turkey’s SAMEKS composite PMI Signals Deepening Slowdown in April

Turkey’s real-sector activity lost further momentum in April, with the SAMEKS Composite Index falling deeper into contraction territory. The decline was driven primarily by a sharp deterioration in the industrial sector, while services showed only a limited and fragile improvement.

Composite Index Remains Below Growth Threshold

According to data released by MUSIAD:

• SAMEKS Composite Index: 47.2
• Monthly change: -1.8 points

A reading below the 50 threshold indicates:

• Contraction in economic activity
• Weak momentum in business conditions

Industrial Sector Weakens Sharply

The industrial SAMEKS index dropped significantly:

• 45.2 in April
• Down 5.1 points month-on-month

Key sub-components highlight broad-based deterioration:

• Production: 38 (down 10.2 points)
• New orders: 44.9 (down 4.3 points)
• Employment: 47.7 (down 13.4 points)
• Inventories: 42.2 (down 6.2 points)

These figures point to:

• Weakening demand conditions
• Slowing production activity
• Increasing pressure on the labor market

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Input Purchases Diverge from Output Trends

One notable exception in industry:

• Input purchases rose to 54.5 (up 2.9 points)

However, this increase appears disconnected from:

• Falling production
• Weak order flows

Suggesting firms are preparing for future activity despite current demand weakness.

Services Sector Shows Limited Resilience

The services SAMEKS index edged slightly higher:

• 49.0 in April
• Up 0.1 points

Sub-indices indicate modest improvement:

• Business volume: 48.4 (up 0.3 points)
• Input purchases: 60.2 (up 10 points)

This suggests:

• A mild recovery in service demand
• Increased operational activity

Underlying Fragility Persists in Services

Despite the slight uptick, several indicators remain weak:

• Inventories: 43.2 (down 6.6 points)
• Supplier delivery times: 44.2 (down 5.3 points)
• Employment: 45.1 (down 2.6 points)

These trends highlight:

• Continued labor market contraction
• Ongoing supply chain inefficiencies
• A fragile recovery environment

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Sectoral Divergence Becomes More Pronounced

April data underscores a growing divergence:

• Industrial sector: clear contraction
• Services sector: limited and uneven improvement

The modest gains in services were insufficient to offset the sharper decline in manufacturing.

Outlook: Downside Risks Dominate

Overall, the April SAMEKS readings suggest:

• Economic activity remains in slowdown territory
• Contraction is becoming more widespread
• Recovery remains weak and vulnerable

The data reinforces concerns that:

• Demand conditions are deteriorating
• Production activity is losing pace
• Labor market pressures are intensifying